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Hockey Challenge 2014

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Seattle and U.S. Division Computer Ratings

Every season I like to periodically update everyone on the WHL Massey Ratings and I haven't done that yet this season. So without further ado... let's update.

Seattle currently sits 9th in the WHL in current rating and 5th in "Power Rating" (as a reminder, Power Rating is a measure that attempts to predict how good a team will be going forward). So the Massey Ratings are expecting Seattle to play a bit better as the season moves along.

They are 13th in Offense, 6th in Defense and they have the 21st "Home Ice Advantage". (Another reminder that HIA isn't a pure measure of how good a team is at home but rather how much their performance is impacted by playing at home. If a team wins all their games at home but loses all their road games they're going to have a much higher HIA than a team that wins all their home games and all their road games).

They have played the 3rd toughest schedule and they have the #1 toughest schedule for the remainder of the season.

Why have they played such a tough schedule and will continue to play such a tough schedule?

The U.S. Division (and also the BC Division). The U.S. Division ranks 2nd in strength behind the B.C. Division. This makes the Western Conference tougher than the Eastern Conference to this point in the season.

Seattle has an opportunity to take advantage of a weaker Division on this road trip.

Seattle has remaining "expected wins" of 26 and "expected losses" of 29 which would finish their record at 33-35-2-1. Some of those 29 losses will no doubt come in OT or the Shootout so their expected point total of 69 should probably inch closer to 75 depending on how many of those "expected losses" are pushed to the extra frame.

Kelowna is the top rated team. Followed in order by Brandon, Everett, Medicine Hat, Tri-City, Prince George, Kamloops, Spokane and then Seattle. Portland checks in at #11 but have a Power Rating of 5th. So don't expect the struggles to continue too much for the Winterhawks.

On the flip side, the MR's think we should see some regression from PG, Kamloops and Spokane but not from the Everett Silvertips.

Kelowna has expected wins of 60! Wow. That will probably regress a little but a repeat of their 57 wins from a year ago seems quite reasonable at this point.


gocanucks said...

A bad loss by the birds last night, there is no way they should lose to SK. Another major and game misconduct for Wardley which could result in another suspension from the league. Why isn't coach k and Russ reeling in Wardley to some what change his game? He is marked by the league and its officials and these types of penalties can't be helping the team.

Anonymous? said...

With Barzal out things don't look good. Nice to get Theo back though. Also, I have been following the debate over whether we should have kept wardley or henry and at this point I think its obvious that keeping wardley over henry was a mistake. Ottenbreit has been good and that part of the trade worked out, but I would rather not have wardley at all if his start to the season is indicative of how the rest of his year will be. I felt the same way about Machacek. It hurts the team to have one of your regulars constantly penalized and suspended.

For all those who disagree I think you should look at his games played vs games missed due to suspension ratio thus far. I also think that the enforcer role is something better done by forwards for the simple reason that a penalty to a defenseman hurts the team more that a penalty to a fourth line forward.

Unknown said...

Because there's not much else going on about here...

New Topic:
What can Farwell and company learn from this guy about defensemen?

Lorne Frey

"Size doesn't matter"

Interesting how the T-Birds often seem to be drafting the opposite to this kind of thinking.
The results are also the exact opposite.

I find myself often sitting in the stands mumbling "outlet pass" to myself and then shaking my head. This year's been better than the past few but I worry that constantly looking for the Sutters of the world isn't a good way to go.

Is "You can't teach size" a valid philosophy these days in the WHL? I kinda think that things have changed away from that.

Watching Barzal, not the biggest of guys, venture in the corners and come out with the puck and move the puck to another TBird is a skillset I'd like to see in the D-Corps. (Yeah, Matt is special but I'm just focusing on one part of his game.)

Not having some big guys on D seems like a bad idea to me but making them the focus seems to be hurting the team. Just having a D-Corp that relies on pushing opponents about doesn't help when you can't get the puck. I'd like to see see physical play designed to separate a player from the puck (see Everett) and get it out to the forwards efficiently (see Kelowna.)

Just starting something here. :)

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