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Hockey Challenge 2014

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9.30.2014

A look at older experienced scorers for the team

Everywhere you look, Seattle fans seem to think this team needs a proven top end scorer.  So I decided to take a look at the league, and what might be out there.

As you will see from the lists below, there are really only 11 players that I can see being realistic trade targets.

This is based on a few factors but for the sake of argument we're going to mostly exclude players in the same conference and players on teams we think probably won't be looking at trading skilled veterans.

9.29.2014

To trade now or later

I am curious why everyone assumes that a trade is coming this week.  Yes, Wardley was returned back to Seattle.  Yes, Seattle now has 4 20's.  But unless Hickman is ready to come back, why make a move?  You have until October 15th, so why rush things.

I have no knowledge of how close Hickman is to returning to the lineup and the WHL weekly update has him listed him as day to day.  Maybe when it gets updated today, it will say he is back.  But I will remind people that last year, it listed Honey as day to day for periods of time also.

So what if he is NOT back this week? Why force a trade if you don't have to?  Take the extra time to make sure you have your mind made up.  Maybe spend more time deciding on a goalie.  Maybe a better offer will come along if you wait a little while longer.

Lets say you have decided on your three 20's, and Kozun is one of them.  You wait another week, and a team comes along and offers two first round picks for him (AKA Marcel Noebels).  Does something like that change your mind?

Lets say you wait a week, and play both of them this weekend, and one gets hurt?

Of course, if Hickman is ready to come back this week, then maybe this post is all for not.

Editor's Note: Adam Henry has been traded to Saskatoon for 17 year old defensemen Turner Ottenbreit.

9.23.2014

Opposites Attract

Everyone knows that in life, opposites somehow find each other.
The first two games for Seattle fit that almost perfectly.

Here were some opposites I noticed

A win.
A loss.

A road win.
A home loss.

This one goes a little below the belt, but a championship banner raised.
No banner raised.

A great drive (or ride in my case) home.
A grumpy and terrible drive home.

Shots on net.
Shots wide of net.

Shots attempted.
Looking for the perfect shot.

Shots picking corners.
Shots hitting the center of the goalie (give him lots of credit).

A powerplay that worked.
A powerplay that struggled.

Now to be fair, here are some thoughts on what didn't change between the two nights

A very bad slow start by Seattle.
Kolesar knows how to hit and fight.
Kozun looked good.
Seattle has an energy line, and when they come out, the hit, hit, and hit.
Coach K changed the lines up in the middle of the game.
Large loud crowds.
Big 50-50 pots.

My father pointed out after the game to me, just to try and cheer me up that Seattle's goals against average is 1.0 and Seattle's goals for average is 2.0.
If you continue that the entire season, you will win every game.


9.21.2014

Tbirds shutout in home opener, zone entries

I'm running a little short on time today but I wanted to put up some quick thoughts about last night and give everyone the zone entries.


  • Seattle started a bit flat (shocking considering the pomp and circumstance surrounding team intros) and it cost them an early goal. It was a goal that wound up being the game winner for Everett as Silvertips goaltender Carter Hart was fantastic earning the 26 save shutout.
  • While Hart was very good for Everett but I also thought Seattle put way too many shots right into his chest and at the end of the game wound up putting way too many shots wide of the net.
  • Obviously, nobody scored last night for Seattle but this was precisely my concern going into the season. There are going to be nights when the top line doesn't score and you're going to need some other guys to step forward and last night that didn't happen.
  • Taran Kozun played well again and I see no reason why he won't be the guy going forward. Hard to imagine them not keeping him around.
Zone entries. Several disclaimers here. One, we cannot possibly make any conclusions from these numbers. It is one game. This was more for my enjoyment and for fun to see what it looked like within the context of one game. Two, I'm sure I missed things. So don't assume these are 100% accurate, they aren't. Three, tracking these numbers is very subjective. For instance, Jared Hauf and Ethan Bear both took shots from around center ice that resulted in shots on goal. I think I counted the Hauf one as a dump because we had players going towards the zone and I didn't count Bear's because everyone was going for a change. These kind of judgment calls happened all game and it's pretty tough. So what I might consider a carry-in and a dump is not going to be exactly the same as other people.

With all of that out of the way... here you go.

20 Dumps
8 Possessions Gained (40%)
4 Shots (20%)

32 Carry-ins
22 Possessions Gained (68.75%)
10 Shots (31.25%)

Seattle actually carried the puck a lot more than I thought they would. That's a really good sign. They started the game dump heavy and that is when they fell behind and had only 3 or 4 shots. As the carries went up, the shots went up. However, the 31.25% shot percentage on possessions gained is way too low. Gropp, just for example, had 5 carries that only resulted in 1 shot on goal. Seattle has to find a way to get the puck to the net more. As you can see, the way to do that... is NOT to dump the puck in more. As low as I thought the "Carry Shots" were they still outpaced the number of shots on goal gained with dumps.

Barzal, not surprisingly, lead the team in carries with 8. 7 of those resulted in possession and 4 resulted in shots on goal. Pretty good on a night where he can definitely play better.




9.20.2014

Starting the Season with a W

Seattle got exactly what they needed with a season opening win last night. It won't go down as the most impressive victory in club history, with Portland missing somewhere around 57 NHL draft picks from their lineup (is that number right?). I also don't think we can make very many assessments about the team after a win over a shorthanded Winterhawks club but it certainly isn't a bad sign. After all, Seattle is also without Justin Hickman and Shea Theodore who are obviously impact players for Seattle. In case you didn't hear the news, Seattle will be without Theodore for a while now as he suffered an elbow injury at Anaheim Ducks camp on Sunday and will be out around 4-6 weeks. He should be back around November.

I had trouble completely analyzing the game because the WHL video feed was still so choppy I thought this was 2002. Maybe my internet is just bad... I don't know.  Here were a few observations that I came up with.


  • One of my biggest concerns going into the season was team defense and that concern was shared by Jon as well. I don't think we can declare this issue dead but the team defense last night was pretty excellent. Seattle had a few bad giveaways early in the game but generally kept things pretty buttoned up after that. Taran Kozun held quite a few shots to prevent rebounds (after a few shaky early moments as well) and did exactly what you would have expected from a 20 year old goaltender.
  • I thought Ethan Bear was particularly solid. What a good hockey player he is at only 17 years old. Even when he made minor mistakes it seemed like he quickly covered them up. The sky is the limit for him and someone is going to get a really good player in the NHL draft this year. He may not have the high upside of a guy like Theodore or Mathew Dumba but I'm going to be very surprised if he doesn't carve out a nice NHL career.
  • Keegan Kolesar nearly won a foot race to a puck with Keoni Texeira when he started the race behind him. We've heard (and seen) that Kolesar's fitness and skating had improved but it was one of those moments where I said to myself "whoa". He also scored earlier in the game on a nice deflection in front of the net. If Seattle is going to prove me wrong and make it to the #4 (or higher) seed for the playoffs, guys like Kolesar will have to play like this on most nights.
  • I liked what I saw from Alex True and Florian Baltram. Baltram even played with the Barzal/Gropp line for a while.
  • Nice to see Seattle mix it up a little bit with Portland. For several years now that has not been Portland's calling card and it seems like whenever Seattle can get Portland to mix it up a little bit the results favor Seattle. When Portland stays out of the scrums, they've generally won. Jared Hauf got things started early with Alex Schoenborn and kept things feisty through the "multiple fight situation" in the 2nd.
  • Ryan Gropp, 1 game, 2 goals. Maybe 35 goals was too conservative. I hope he pots 40.
  • Mathew Barzal, 1 game, 2 assists. Ho Hum.
Everett is not missing nearly as many players as Portland is, so I expect this game to give us a little better indication of where things stand. Preseason games really don't matter very much but Seattle has to be feeling a little bit stung by losing back to back games to Everett to end the preseason.

I will be attending a rare game without kids tonight so I'm actually going to try to track some entry stats. Don't expect that to be a regular thing (unfortunately) but we'll see what it looks like.

9.19.2014

Jon and Tyler Predict The Future, Part 2

Tyler:

I really hope they don’t make a decision on someone like Kozun based on a few exhibition games and a small handful of regular season games. I will ask you, what seems more indicative of his talent level? The .934 he posted in 10 games in January last year? The .928 he posted in 24 games with Seattle? Or a few exhibition games in August/September? I’m hoping the bigger sample size wins out but you never know. In fairness, he did post a .897 in 29 games with Kamloops but he posted a .914 in in 20 games with Kamloops the year before.  

With that being said I think they keep Kozun to stabilize the defensive core, I think they keep Wardley (assuming he doesn't sign a contract) because his skill set is more difficult to replace and I think Hickman stays because he’s your Captain and forms a really good line with Barzal and Gropp when healthy.


You mentioned Coach K’s “system”… I think I’m generally a pretty knowledgeable hockey fan but I admit that I still have so much to learn. One thing I can’t quite figure out is what kind of style of play Coach K is really trying to establish with the players. That’s not to say that I think anything he is doing is wrong, it’s clear that he values hard work, get pucks to the net, etc. Those things are pretty obvious. To me, style goes well beyond the obvious things, it moves into more complex ideas such as, do they want to trap in the neutral zone? Do they want to chip and forecheck in the corners? Do they want to keep and carry the puck into the offensive zone? Do they hang back and take care of defense first or do they play a wide open style?  If you were to ask me to describe the Steve Konowalchuk Thunderbirds, I’m not sure I could describe any kind of calling card. So educate me Jon (I smirked writing that), tell me what the identity (playing style) of the Coach K Thunderbirds is?

9.18.2014

Jon and Tyler Predict The Future, Part 1

As we do every year (and every week day) Jon and I started discussing the upcoming season and in this post we let you drop in on the conversation.


Tyler:

Jon, let's kick off our annual prediction post by having me state that I think this team is ripe for disappointment this year. I know that's going to be a bit of an unpopular stance but the team is very young up front and I just don't see enough scoring depth to enable this team to take a really big step forward. The defense and goaltending should be a strong point but I don't think they will lead the league in defense (or be top 5) and that is a recipe for some very uneven performances.  Tell me why I'm wrong (or right)?

Jon:

You have a very valid argument.  But, I will start out by asking, what would you consider a disappointment?  Is it not winning the WHL? Not making it to the Western conference final, etc? Just about every prognosticator (took me 5 minutes to come up with the correct spelling of that word) out there has Seattle picked for 2nd place in the division, and making into the second round of the conference playoffs.  They say Seattle will be well behind Portland, and far enough ahead of Everett and Tri. So does that mean not obtaining those results is disappointing, I would say yes it would be. 

But if they do obtain those goals, could it still be disappointing? I would say yes to that also.  Last year they won 41 games.  Let's say they win 45 games this season, and have enough points to finish in the top 4 of the conference, but they do it by allowing close to the 249 goals they gave up last season.  To me, that would be a HUGE disappointment for a team people are saying is one of the best defensive teams.  Let's say the same result, except they win a ton of games 2-1, giving up 200 goals, but finish with 200 goals scored, down from the 238 they scored last year.  Is that a disappointment? Well, probably not.

So to answer your question, do I think this team is ripe for disappointment, I say it all depends on what your expectations are going in.  I agree with all the people picking us for a top 4 finish, and getting the goals against down (249 last year, .5 goal per game better, totaling  213), but with the scoring down also (238 last season, down .5 goals a game, totaling 232).  These numbers were almost exactly what Everett had last season, and we know that was good for a tie with us for 2nd in the division.

So what are your expectations that make you think Seattle is ready to disappoint?

9.16.2014

Wash, Rinse, Repeat

It is only preseason, or so I keep telling myself that over and over.

Same game, different night.
Well, not quite the same, but the basic formula was the same.

Seattle had a really bad slow start, and it showed.
Seattle got lucky when Elder went off for high sticking a minute and a half after Everett got it's second goal.  I thought for sure they would get a third and basically wrap the game up right there.

It is only preseason, or so I keep telling myself that over and over.

If I have my numbers correct, Everett got it's 3rd shot of the game right after their 2nd goal around the 6:15 mark of the first.  Their 4th shot game at the 19:00 mark of the first.  So they went 13 minutes of playing time between shots.
Seattle just controlled play the entire rest of the period.
The 2nd period was much the same.  Everett had 10 shots, and 7 of them came in a 2 minute window half way through the period.

It is only preseason, or so I keep telling myself that over and over.

Now, here was the difference from Friday night.
Seattle was back to shooting the puck wide of the net, and also afraid to take shots.
More then once, a Seattle player found themselves in the slot with a shot, but instead tried to make a pass.  Or they just plain held the puck too long, and the chance went away.
The 3rd period was also a little from the previous night.  Everett didn't dominate play as much, but instead, they just gave Seattle no chances.  Only 2 shots the entire 3rd period, and those came in the last 5 minutes.

It is only preseason, or so I keep telling myself that over and over.

As the previous night, the lines were changed again.  But Saturday, I actually thought they started to play better then the previous night.

I thought Flodell looked very good, and was beat by very nice deflections on two of the goals, and was left out to dry on the giveaway behind the net.  The only goal I really fault him on was the empty net goal, I mean come on, he was so far out of position sitting on the bench.

As has been pointed out in the write up's by Andy Eide, Nolan Volcan had a great night.
But the one player I thought had the best night and I have not seen it mentioned was Nick Holowko. He hit everything that moved when he had the chance, went very hard after the puck when he was on the ice, and played smart in his own zone.  He got his name on the score sheet with two checking from behind penalties.  One was a good call, the other somewhat questionable to me.

After this post, it is not preseason any longer, so I can't use that line any longer.

9.13.2014

Another 4-1 loss to Everett

The first thing I have to remind myself was that this was a preseason game.

A game to try out things, see what works and what doesn't.
And a lot of things did work, and a lot of things didn't work.
So I am going to approach this as if was a regular season game, just for the practice.

I really liked Seattle's first two periods.  Especially the first.  They controlled play, sometimes in dominating fashion.  My only problem with it was that although they did get off 20 shots, I didn't think very many were quality shots.  But I also give Everett some credit there, for bending, but not breaking (for a football term).

One major breakdown in front of the net where Seattle couldn't clear the puck, and it ends up in the net.  On Everett's 2nd goal, the puck pin-balled around, sometimes on purpose, sometimes not, and ended up in the back of the net.  Everett's 3rd goal was from an amazingly tight angle.  I was at that end, and everyone around me thought it deflected off of Smith's stick, but no one in the press is saying it did, so maybe we are wrong (no jokes here please).

The 3rd period was when Seattle really needed to put on the pressure, and instead, it was all Everett. Everett held the puck and controlled the play much the way Seattle did in the 1st.  It took a lot of effort for Seattle to clear the puck, then make a change before the next wave of Tips brought it in.  It looked as though Portland was playing Seattle with nice passes, winning battles, etc.

At the end of the game trailing 4-1, Seattle did get a chance to practice with the extra attacker. Danny Mamaugh was pulled with a minute and a half to go in the game, but Seattle couldn't really get setup to do much.

The highlight of the night for me was watching Jared Hauf drop the gloves with Zane Jones after a scrum in front of the net.  The way Hauf was playing all night, he was looking for this type of play.  He was hitting everything in sight during the game.  And the fight just continued the hitting, as he seemed to use Jones as a bobble head.  Jones did get a couple in to make the fight closer to even, but a clear win for Hauf.

One other positive I took out of the game was the power-play.  When Seattle was able to gain control, I thought they moved the puck around well, and did get some good quality scoring chances.  They used the point players well, and for the most part, the passes were stick to stick.

The last positive was that I don't recall Seattle shooting the puck wide very often.  I sometimes joke that Seattle is the best at the league about missing the net, but tonight, it just didn't seem to happen very much.

Now on to the part of the game that just killed me watching (and the part where I have to remind myself that it was only preseason).

The lines were all mixed up, and changed somewhat throughout the night.  Partly because of special teams times, and part just to mix things up, but it just seemed like guys were not working well or getting in a groove with each other.  In reading some of the quotes from Andy Eide's article on the game, Coach wanted to remind Barzal and Gropp that things change, and that " (they) sometimes think it's going to come easy if they're together".  So he had them on two different lines.  Coach followed that quote up with "I liked both their games today".  I did not.  I thought they played well doing what they do, but I didn't think they meshed with their line-mates very well.  Maybe more practice with it, maybe with more time it would work, but I personally didn't think it worked well.  But, I do keep telling myself that a player must be able to play with different people, in different situations, and that it is only preseason.

It will be interesting to see how the team reacts tonight in the final tune up for next weekends games, especially knowing that they play this same Everett team in the home opener.

9.11.2014

Some info to fill your week before the big weekend

Here is some interesting reading info to fill up your time until this weekend's preseason games.
I will be at both games, and as usual, will have my thoughts posted, probably on Sunday.
I hope to see a lot of you there Saturday night.


The first thing caught me completely off guard this morning.


It is a story about how the state of Washington is investigating the WHL teams to gain an understanding of the working conditions for the players.  This has gone as far as the attorney general, who is working on a legal opinion.

Second reading is a list of the top 40 NHL draft eligible players according to TSN's Director of Scouting Craig Button .  


The usual 3 are listed, Barzal, Gropp, and Bear.  Interesting to see Gropp lower then Bear, which is usually not the case.

Third reading is a complete joke.

It is the BMO top 10 rankings.  And Seattle gets an honorable mention.

Lastly, if you want to compare WHL teams.


Alan Caldwell has his amazing list of teams and what players they have left in camp.
What the list shows is the average age of each team and their average height and weight.
If you take a look, you might get a little bit scared about Seattle's situation.
Seattle is listed as one of the youngest team, and still have 5 20's.
To get further scared, if you look at the actual spreadsheet he has listed also, you will find that Seattle has the fewest number of games played for forwards.  And it is not close.

But there is a big change since the last couple of years.  Seattle comes in the middle of the pack for height and weight.  In previous years, Seattle was the tallest, and usually near the top of weight.

WHL Scoreboard