A sad day has arrived...

Many of you have no doubt noticed the dwindling frequency of my posts over the past year. I knew this day would eventually arrive and sadly I think I have realized this week that the time has come for me to take an extended hiatus from Let's Go Birds.

For 1035 posts (this one being 1036) I have sincerely enjoyed writing about the hockey team I grew up watching. For the better part of 8 (mostly frustrating and ultimately disappointing) seasons I have attempted to break down games, players, transactions and just about anything that has happened to the Seattle Thunderbirds (at least the stuff I think that matters).

I could fill up this section with the excuses I have for taking a "break" and the fact is that none of you will likely care (and shouldn't). Occam's razor is loosely interpreted to mean that the simplest of explanations among competing hypotheses is the one that should be selected. Well... my excuse is that life has simply gotten in the way.

Trust me when I tell you that my passion for Tbirds hockey has not changed. I enjoy watching the game and the team as much as I ever have. My absence from games and my lack of time to write have drained my motivation to provide quality content beyond the most obvious and mundane observations. I was never going to be able to operate Let's Go Birds in a half assed way and my lack of both quantity and quality has compounded my frustrations with trying to keep things going.

I'm not even sure I'm doing a very good job of explaining myself right now.

This isn't necessarily a retirement.

Perhaps, at some point down the road, I will pick this up again and get things rolling. Perhaps I won't. I'm really looking forward to the next time I get to watch the team play and not have to worry about analyzing what is going on and whether I have something intelligent to write about.

My one true regret will probably be the donations to the Ronald McDonald House that I will miss for the Hockey Challenge each year. So do me a favor... keep donating to a great cause on my behalf. I can promise that each year I will still find the time to raise money and play a little hockey for The Challenge.

Finally. From the bottom of my heart... I want to thank everyone who has ever read this blog and followed what we do. I want to thank Jon for trying to help me keep this thing going and trying to pick up the slack for me when his time allowed.

It has been a pretty fun ride. Thanks for letting me be a part of things and building this blog into what it was.

Seattle and U.S. Division Computer Ratings

Every season I like to periodically update everyone on the WHL Massey Ratings and I haven't done that yet this season. So without further ado... let's update.

Seattle currently sits 9th in the WHL in current rating and 5th in "Power Rating" (as a reminder, Power Rating is a measure that attempts to predict how good a team will be going forward). So the Massey Ratings are expecting Seattle to play a bit better as the season moves along.

They are 13th in Offense, 6th in Defense and they have the 21st "Home Ice Advantage". (Another reminder that HIA isn't a pure measure of how good a team is at home but rather how much their performance is impacted by playing at home. If a team wins all their games at home but loses all their road games they're going to have a much higher HIA than a team that wins all their home games and all their road games).

They have played the 3rd toughest schedule and they have the #1 toughest schedule for the remainder of the season.

Why have they played such a tough schedule and will continue to play such a tough schedule?

The U.S. Division (and also the BC Division). The U.S. Division ranks 2nd in strength behind the B.C. Division. This makes the Western Conference tougher than the Eastern Conference to this point in the season.

Seattle has an opportunity to take advantage of a weaker Division on this road trip.

Seattle has remaining "expected wins" of 26 and "expected losses" of 29 which would finish their record at 33-35-2-1. Some of those 29 losses will no doubt come in OT or the Shootout so their expected point total of 69 should probably inch closer to 75 depending on how many of those "expected losses" are pushed to the extra frame.

Kelowna is the top rated team. Followed in order by Brandon, Everett, Medicine Hat, Tri-City, Prince George, Kamloops, Spokane and then Seattle. Portland checks in at #11 but have a Power Rating of 5th. So don't expect the struggles to continue too much for the Winterhawks.

On the flip side, the MR's think we should see some regression from PG, Kamloops and Spokane but not from the Everett Silvertips.

Kelowna has expected wins of 60! Wow. That will probably regress a little but a repeat of their 57 wins from a year ago seems quite reasonable at this point.

Shoot the Puck... at the "right time"

I tweeted about this the other day and I meant to expand on it and my schedule just hasn't allowed for it (something that has become far too common these days). Seattle will host the Red Deer Rebels tonight and I will be watching closely how many times Seattle hits the net with the puck.

Seattle fired a ton of pucks at the net Saturday night and just wasn't able to score, losing to the Vancouver Giants 1-0 but the fact that they got those pucks to the net is a sign that good things should start happening more often (provided they keep shooting... I'll get to that).

Currently, Seattle has a shooting percentage of 8.434% which is "good" for 3rd worst in the league. Kelowna leads the league in shooting percentage at 15.717% and while I don't expect Seattle to get themselves up to 15% anytime soon I also don't expect them to shoot this poorly for the entire season.

Last season, the worst shooting team in the WHL was Lethbridge at 8.113%, so I suppose it is possible that Seattle really is "this" bad and things won't improve. If they don't... you can expect them to be near the bottom of the standings as the worst shooting teams in the league last year were Lethbridge, Kamloops, Moose Jaw and Tri-City (aka, not good company).

Seattle has to continue to get pucks to the net while they are playing 5x5 and continue to be selective on the Power Play. I know some people love to yell "shooooooooot" when teams are on the Power Play but the time to yell "shoooooooot" is actually when they are at even strength. Studies have shown (just trust me here... I'm too tired to source it) that more shots generally equal more goals and particularly at even strength.

The catch-22 is that you have a bunch of 16-20 year old boys/men who just got finished shooting the puck 38 times on net and not scoring and it would be somewhat reasonable for them to collectively be more selective with their shots. This of course... would be a mistake. Seattle is only averaging 27.8 shots on goal per game and that is after getting those 38 against Vancouver. By contrast, league average is roughly 30.8 and Medicine Hat leads the league at 35.8 shots on goal per game.

The challenge of the coaching staff (and I have to assume they are doing this) is to make sure they know that they have to keep shooting the puck and that eventually they will get some lucky bounces to go along with the quality goals that they will also score.

A comment / Question from a reader

This was just posted as a comment on another post, but I thought it was such a great question / thought, it deserved it's own place.

Montague Pei said...

It's been quiet on here for some time, so perhaps I can get a discussion going on the T-Birds. From watching the last number of games, I notice that the first line is always playing about every second shift. Not only that but because of the numerous penalties that are allocated in junior hockey, these first line guys are constantly on the power play, the penalty kill and their regular shift. Instead of playing a 4 lines rotation, they continually use those guys all the time, where at some point, they will wear down. I noticed it the last few games, where in the third period, that line was worn out so tired. Not only does this type of line change wear guys down, it also leaves them vulnerable to injury, which we cannot afford to have happen. The style of play of this team, as being directed, reminds me of the Vancouver Canucks last year under a different coach. Their first line of Sedin, the new coach had them killing penalties, the power play, blocking shots and a regular shift. What happened??? These guys had the worst year of offense in their careers and they got hurt. 

With the type of play with our first line and these guys leaving to play World Juniors, by Christmas or in January, they will be so beat up, that when the crunch comes, they are playing way below their level.

We have to start rolling all our lines. I understand that we are trying to get a build up of points early in the season, but this can all crumble later on. It's a long season, take time to develop all our young guys... Just thinking and wanting comments on this ...

A bag full of thoughts.

I have not posted lately, so here is a lot of thoughts that have been roaming through my head.


This weekends games

On Friday, I completely disagreed with coach.  He liked our play in the first two periods, I didn't.  I thought we had very little passing that was working.  We are especially afraid to take shots the were open.

On Saturday, I thought we played a very good game, just couldn't get that early goal.  And the bounces just didn't seem to go our way. 

Coach starting to get a little frustrated

In the past couple of game reports, Coach K has used some choice and carefully thought out wording to describe the officiating and the league's discipline.  I don't recall seeing or hearing him do this before.  Is this maybe his way of working the officials.  If so, it doesn't seem to be working.

2 things I think this team is missing

1) A 2nd line that can score consistently.
2) Confidence.


The power of one goal

What would one extra goal a game mean to this team.  Score one more goal turns the 1-0 Everett loss into a tie or win.  It turns a shootout loss to Spokane into a win.  It turns last nights OT loss to Kamloops into a win.  Well, that's anywhere from 4 to 5 points.  4 points would move them from a .455 winning percentage to a .636.

This is one reason why I am not worried about the team.  Youngest team in the league, in most games, only giving up 3 goals a game.  It is just like Coach K said at the beginning, this team will get better and better as the season goes on, and maybe a few of those one extra goal per game start going in.

What I am worried about

One thing I am worried about is the teams home record.  Granted, one OT loss, one SO loss, one very close loss to Kelowna, and a one goal loss to Everett.  What do all those games have in common, one goal (see above).

Of course the other thing that has to worry everyone is giving up the first goal in all but one game (I think that is the stat).  Always playing from behind is never a good thing.  But, also a positive can be taken out of it.  In most of those games, they have come back to tie or take the lead.  That is a great positive for a young inexperienced team.

Positives

This team love to pass.  I think this is one way you can tell the players are lacking some confidence.  How many times have players decided to make a risky pass when they have a great shooting chance of their own?  Of course, I would rather have this then a bunch of puck hogging "me-first" players.

I love how this team is starting to stick up for each other.  Quite a few times over the past week, players were having liberties taken against them, bad hits, scrums, and every player on the ice comes flying to to help out.  Even look at both of new defenders (can you call them new still, with all the playing time), right there in the middle of things.  Heck, even Barzal was starting to the get a little physical over this last weekend.

The new guys

Speaking of new defenders, how much locker room credit did Allan get. Get off airplane, meet with coaches, play 50% of a game.  I am sure when he heard he had been traded, that is what he predicted was going to happen.  I really like his passing.  Very hard, crisp, usually on the stick, and more times then not to the right player (making the best move).

Ottenbreit, I love the way he plays physical.  He is not afraid to step in any situation.  Another great pickup in a trade that Farwell has pulled off.

Irresponsible reporting

Take a read of this article.  Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with the Wardley hit and suspension, how can anyone claim this is anything but a sensationalized piece of writing with a goal of getting a writers name out and more clicks on a webpage.

http://thehockeywriters.com/brutal-hit-sidelines-jets-prospect/

The choice of wording is questionable at best. Particularly, the last paragraph where it basically says the best thing for Petan to do is rest and make sure he is 100% fully recovered and there is no need to rush him coming back.  I guess a couple days on the bus fixes everything.

Hypothetical situation

We all know Ethan Bear is out with an upper body injury, and that he was held out of the game where it appeared he took a punch while on the ice.  He sure was bleeding heavily.  Let's just say that hypothetically, his injury actually started when he got checked from behind by Bjorkstrand the game against Portland.  I am by no way saying this is the case, as there is no way Seattle puts him back on the ice if he was hurt.  But lets say the check from behind started the injury process, then Wardley is sitting out 7 games, in part according to the WHL website as "The hit resulted in an injury to opponent".  But Bjorkstrand is playing while Bear is injured.

WHL Website

Everyone these days is ripping the new WHL website apart for having problems working, or even showing any information.  I for one am going to praise them.  In the computer development terminology, there is a term called "beta testing".  This is the process of finding bugs and issues while a product is in development. Normal companies might have 1 or 2 testers.  The WHL managed to get a few thousand of these people to work for free.  Cue the sarcasm.

Neuline

During the game October 3, Seattle played in Portland, and I did not attend.  So as usually, I brought up the game on the net.  Since I dont appreciate listening to the play by play pair in Portland's side of the game, I tried to get the away audio.  But for me, there was no drop down selection ability.  I checked with three other fellow viewers, and it was all the same for them.  In the press release dated September 18th, it stated "Fans can still take advantage of the live support chat option, accessible directly from theWHL LIVE site, which instantly connects viewers to a customer support team member to resolve any issues."  So I decided to use this to find out why.  I tried 2 different times, and both times, no customer support person ever joined the chat window.  So I sent them a support email through their system, and got an email back with my ticket numebr, and a message saying would get back to me very shortly.  Funny thing happened Saturday night, October 18th.  I got the response.  It explained that they were sorry I missed the game "which I never said, and did not miss it", and that is was caused by an issue in the venue.  They have offered me a free live game.  So it took 15 days to offer me a free game, and not deal with the actual issue.  I guess nothing changes with the WHLLIVE.

Comments

Sigh. I guess people can't behave while I'm on vacation. Comment moderation turned on.

Tbirds add a Defender and the Wardley Hit

Just released, Seattle has added Scott Allan from Medicine Hat for a 5th round bantam selection. I know very little about Allan other than he is listed as being 6'5" and 235 lbs (sounds like a Farwell guy to me) and is listed as being from Colorado.

I would have to imagine this is a response to the anticipation that Evan Wardley will be suspended, Ethan Bear is injured or perhaps both.

I saw the Wardley hit over the weekend and here is my take.

In 2014, the world has been successfully conditioned to believe that everything is seen as either black or white. People seem to believe that things are either one way completely or they are the other way completely. This is quite unfortunate because I think most, if not all, things are actually colored quite gray.

To me, this is another one of those situations.

I watched the replay late that night and saw the hit, I watched the replay in slow motion probably 25 times. Portland announcers, writers and even the team itself called it a "dirty hit" while some in the Seattle fan base feel strongly it was a clean hit.

This is what I believe:

- Petan puts himself in a vulnerable position in the neutral zone in a tight space where he has to know he's going to get hit and really does nothing to protect himself from potential contact. Does this make it his fault? No. Does this mean he shares a little bit of responsibility? I say yes. Petan is already a small target at 5'9" and lowers his body position even more to receive the puck and enter the zone. This isn't his fault, I'm just stating it as a point of fact.

- Wardley has good gap, doesn't take unnecessary strides, lowers his body, keeps his skates down and his elbows tucked. All consistent with a good clean hit. Where I can see Wardley went wrong is that a split second before contact, his body position goes from a low crouch to a higher and extended position. This, in combination with Petan already being a lower target means that point of contact is going to be high.

Seattle is saying the point of contact is shoulder to shoulder or shoulder to chest whereas Portland is going to say the point of contact is the head.  I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. It looked to me like Wardley got quite a bit of body but also probably made contact above the shoulders because of the nature of Petan's position.

Do I think he'll be suspended? Yes. He's a repeat offender and the responsibility is always going to be placed on the hitter not to make contact high. Do I think it was a "dirty hit" as the Winterhawks official press release stated? No, I absolutely do not.

Wardley is trying to make a hockey play. That's his game and that's what his game should be. Portland is a finesse team and as such they believe they are should be entitled to skate around the ice without so much as a tiny bit of contact here and there. Well, it doesn't work that way. Some hockey players and teams are tough and strong and physical and their game is to make sure Nic Petan thinks twice about receiving a blind pass over the center of the ice. That. Is. Hockey. 

The NFL has a defenseless receiver rule. Hockey has no such rule. You are allowed to hit a player cleanly and legally even if he has hit head down and doesn't see you coming. I cannot tell you how many times we were told as kids to "keep your head up" at all times and be aware of your surroundings.

Wardley's hit will receive discipline and I would probably agree that it will be justified. But Portland's announcers, writers and front office should probably take a really close look in the mirror before casting casting aspersions on him. 

They should look no further than the hit delivered by Oliver Bjorkstrand to end the overtime period. Bjorkstrand's hit came well after the horn (Wardley's was during play), was delivered to an opponents back (Wardley's was not) and used the boards to inflict added harm (Wardley's did not). Both hits were delivered to opponents who were unsuspecting but Petan probably should have expected contact in the neutral zone during the middle of a play where Ethan Bear can reasonably expect not to get checked well after the horn sounds.

Portland fans, announcers and team officials will most certainly disagree but in my opinion the intent of the Bjorkstrand hit was far worse than Wardley's.

Shades of gray...

Kevin Wolf update

A tweet went out last night from Danny Mumaugh indicating that Kevin Wolf is no longer with the team.

Going to miss this giant! Sad to see him go after living with him for the past 2 years. Good luck big… http://t.co/oaCf0vS6Wp
— Danny Mumaugh (@DannyMumaugh) October 3, 2014

No official word from the Thunderbirds on how this decision came about but it would seem as though perhaps Wolf got caught up in the numbers game (as we suspected) and left either on his own or was released.

With the addition of Turner Ottenbreit and the return of Evan Wardley, Seattle has 7 healthy Defenders and would have had 8 once Shea Theodore returns from injury.

Wolf never could quite get his skating up to speed and that probably hurt him in the end. He seemed like a good kid and we wish him well.

A look at older experienced scorers for the team

Everywhere you look, Seattle fans seem to think this team needs a proven top end scorer.  So I decided to take a look at the league, and what might be out there.

As you will see from the lists below, there are really only 11 players that I can see being realistic trade targets.

This is based on a few factors but for the sake of argument we're going to mostly exclude players in the same conference and players on teams we think probably won't be looking at trading skilled veterans.

To trade now or later

I am curious why everyone assumes that a trade is coming this week.  Yes, Wardley was returned back to Seattle.  Yes, Seattle now has 4 20's.  But unless Hickman is ready to come back, why make a move?  You have until October 15th, so why rush things.

I have no knowledge of how close Hickman is to returning to the lineup and the WHL weekly update has him listed him as day to day.  Maybe when it gets updated today, it will say he is back.  But I will remind people that last year, it listed Honey as day to day for periods of time also.

So what if he is NOT back this week? Why force a trade if you don't have to?  Take the extra time to make sure you have your mind made up.  Maybe spend more time deciding on a goalie.  Maybe a better offer will come along if you wait a little while longer.

Lets say you have decided on your three 20's, and Kozun is one of them.  You wait another week, and a team comes along and offers two first round picks for him (AKA Marcel Noebels).  Does something like that change your mind?

Lets say you wait a week, and play both of them this weekend, and one gets hurt?

Of course, if Hickman is ready to come back this week, then maybe this post is all for not.

Editor's Note: Adam Henry has been traded to Saskatoon for 17 year old defensemen Turner Ottenbreit.

Opposites Attract

Everyone knows that in life, opposites somehow find each other.
The first two games for Seattle fit that almost perfectly.

Here were some opposites I noticed

A win.
A loss.

A road win.
A home loss.

This one goes a little below the belt, but a championship banner raised.
No banner raised.

A great drive (or ride in my case) home.
A grumpy and terrible drive home.

Shots on net.
Shots wide of net.

Shots attempted.
Looking for the perfect shot.

Shots picking corners.
Shots hitting the center of the goalie (give him lots of credit).

A powerplay that worked.
A powerplay that struggled.

Now to be fair, here are some thoughts on what didn't change between the two nights

A very bad slow start by Seattle.
Kolesar knows how to hit and fight.
Kozun looked good.
Seattle has an energy line, and when they come out, the hit, hit, and hit.
Coach K changed the lines up in the middle of the game.
Large loud crowds.
Big 50-50 pots.

My father pointed out after the game to me, just to try and cheer me up that Seattle's goals against average is 1.0 and Seattle's goals for average is 2.0.
If you continue that the entire season, you will win every game.

Tbirds shutout in home opener, zone entries

I'm running a little short on time today but I wanted to put up some quick thoughts about last night and give everyone the zone entries.

• Seattle started a bit flat (shocking considering the pomp and circumstance surrounding team intros) and it cost them an early goal. It was a goal that wound up being the game winner for Everett as Silvertips goaltender Carter Hart was fantastic earning the 26 save shutout.
• While Hart was very good for Everett but I also thought Seattle put way too many shots right into his chest and at the end of the game wound up putting way too many shots wide of the net.
• Obviously, nobody scored last night for Seattle but this was precisely my concern going into the season. There are going to be nights when the top line doesn't score and you're going to need some other guys to step forward and last night that didn't happen.
• Taran Kozun played well again and I see no reason why he won't be the guy going forward. Hard to imagine them not keeping him around.

Zone entries. Several disclaimers here. One, we cannot possibly make any conclusions from these numbers. It is one game. This was more for my enjoyment and for fun to see what it looked like within the context of one game. Two, I'm sure I missed things. So don't assume these are 100% accurate, they aren't. Three, tracking these numbers is very subjective. For instance, Jared Hauf and Ethan Bear both took shots from around center ice that resulted in shots on goal. I think I counted the Hauf one as a dump because we had players going towards the zone and I didn't count Bear's because everyone was going for a change. These kind of judgment calls happened all game and it's pretty tough. So what I might consider a carry-in and a dump is not going to be exactly the same as other people.

With all of that out of the way... here you go.

20 Dumps

8 Possessions Gained (40%)

4 Shots (20%)

32 Carry-ins

22 Possessions Gained (68.75%)

10 Shots (31.25%)

Seattle actually carried the puck a lot more than I thought they would. That's a really good sign. They started the game dump heavy and that is when they fell behind and had only 3 or 4 shots. As the carries went up, the shots went up. However, the 31.25% shot percentage on possessions gained is way too low. Gropp, just for example, had 5 carries that only resulted in 1 shot on goal. Seattle has to find a way to get the puck to the net more. As you can see, the way to do that... is NOT to dump the puck in more. As low as I thought the "Carry Shots" were they still outpaced the number of shots on goal gained with dumps.

Barzal, not surprisingly, lead the team in carries with 8. 7 of those resulted in possession and 4 resulted in shots on goal. Pretty good on a night where he can definitely play better.

Starting the Season with a W

Seattle got exactly what they needed with a season opening win last night. It won't go down as the most impressive victory in club history, with Portland missing somewhere around 57 NHL draft picks from their lineup (is that number right?). I also don't think we can make very many assessments about the team after a win over a shorthanded Winterhawks club but it certainly isn't a bad sign. After all, Seattle is also without Justin Hickman and Shea Theodore who are obviously impact players for Seattle. In case you didn't hear the news, Seattle will be without Theodore for a while now as he suffered an elbow injury at Anaheim Ducks camp on Sunday and will be out around 4-6 weeks. He should be back around November.

I had trouble completely analyzing the game because the WHL video feed was still so choppy I thought this was 2002. Maybe my internet is just bad... I don't know.  Here were a few observations that I came up with.

• One of my biggest concerns going into the season was team defense and that concern was shared by Jon as well. I don't think we can declare this issue dead but the team defense last night was pretty excellent. Seattle had a few bad giveaways early in the game but generally kept things pretty buttoned up after that. Taran Kozun held quite a few shots to prevent rebounds (after a few shaky early moments as well) and did exactly what you would have expected from a 20 year old goaltender.
• I thought Ethan Bear was particularly solid. What a good hockey player he is at only 17 years old. Even when he made minor mistakes it seemed like he quickly covered them up. The sky is the limit for him and someone is going to get a really good player in the NHL draft this year. He may not have the high upside of a guy like Theodore or Mathew Dumba but I'm going to be very surprised if he doesn't carve out a nice NHL career.
• Keegan Kolesar nearly won a foot race to a puck with Keoni Texeira when he started the race behind him. We've heard (and seen) that Kolesar's fitness and skating had improved but it was one of those moments where I said to myself "whoa". He also scored earlier in the game on a nice deflection in front of the net. If Seattle is going to prove me wrong and make it to the #4 (or higher) seed for the playoffs, guys like Kolesar will have to play like this on most nights.
• I liked what I saw from Alex True and Florian Baltram. Baltram even played with the Barzal/Gropp line for a while.
• Nice to see Seattle mix it up a little bit with Portland. For several years now that has not been Portland's calling card and it seems like whenever Seattle can get Portland to mix it up a little bit the results favor Seattle. When Portland stays out of the scrums, they've generally won. Jared Hauf got things started early with Alex Schoenborn and kept things feisty through the "multiple fight situation" in the 2nd.
• Ryan Gropp, 1 game, 2 goals. Maybe 35 goals was too conservative. I hope he pots 40.
• Mathew Barzal, 1 game, 2 assists. Ho Hum.

Everett is not missing nearly as many players as Portland is, so I expect this game to give us a little better indication of where things stand. Preseason games really don't matter very much but Seattle has to be feeling a little bit stung by losing back to back games to Everett to end the preseason.

I will be attending a rare game without kids tonight so I'm actually going to try to track some entry stats. Don't expect that to be a regular thing (unfortunately) but we'll see what it looks like.

Jon and Tyler Predict The Future, Part 2

Tyler:

I really hope they don’t make a decision on someone like Kozun based on a few exhibition games and a small handful of regular season games. I will ask you, what seems more indicative of his talent level? The .934 he posted in 10 games in January last year? The .928 he posted in 24 games with Seattle? Or a few exhibition games in August/September? I’m hoping the bigger sample size wins out but you never know. In fairness, he did post a .897 in 29 games with Kamloops but he posted a .914 in in 20 games with Kamloops the year before.  

With that being said I think they keep Kozun to stabilize the defensive core, I think they keep Wardley (assuming he doesn't sign a contract) because his skill set is more difficult to replace and I think Hickman stays because he’s your Captain and forms a really good line with Barzal and Gropp when healthy.

You mentioned Coach K’s “system”… I think I’m generally a pretty knowledgeable hockey fan but I admit that I still have so much to learn. One thing I can’t quite figure out is what kind of style of play Coach K is really trying to establish with the players. That’s not to say that I think anything he is doing is wrong, it’s clear that he values hard work, get pucks to the net, etc. Those things are pretty obvious. To me, style goes well beyond the obvious things, it moves into more complex ideas such as, do they want to trap in the neutral zone? Do they want to chip and forecheck in the corners? Do they want to keep and carry the puck into the offensive zone? Do they hang back and take care of defense first or do they play a wide open style?  If you were to ask me to describe the Steve Konowalchuk Thunderbirds, I’m not sure I could describe any kind of calling card. So educate me Jon (I smirked writing that), tell me what the identity (playing style) of the Coach K Thunderbirds is?

Jon and Tyler Predict The Future, Part 1

As we do every year (and every week day) Jon and I started discussing the upcoming season and in this post we let you drop in on the conversation.

Tyler:

Jon, let's kick off our annual prediction post by having me state that I think this team is ripe for disappointment this year. I know that's going to be a bit of an unpopular stance but the team is very young up front and I just don't see enough scoring depth to enable this team to take a really big step forward. The defense and goaltending should be a strong point but I don't think they will lead the league in defense (or be top 5) and that is a recipe for some very uneven performances.  Tell me why I'm wrong (or right)?

Jon:

You have a very valid argument.  But, I will start out by asking, what would you consider a disappointment?  Is it not winning the WHL? Not making it to the Western conference final, etc? Just about every prognosticator (took me 5 minutes to come up with the correct spelling of that word) out there has Seattle picked for 2nd place in the division, and making into the second round of the conference playoffs.  They say Seattle will be well behind Portland, and far enough ahead of Everett and Tri. So does that mean not obtaining those results is disappointing, I would say yes it would be. 

But if they do obtain those goals, could it still be disappointing? I would say yes to that also.  Last year they won 41 games.  Let's say they win 45 games this season, and have enough points to finish in the top 4 of the conference, but they do it by allowing close to the 249 goals they gave up last season.  To me, that would be a HUGE disappointment for a team people are saying is one of the best defensive teams.  Let's say the same result, except they win a ton of games 2-1, giving up 200 goals, but finish with 200 goals scored, down from the 238 they scored last year.  Is that a disappointment? Well, probably not.

So to answer your question, do I think this team is ripe for disappointment, I say it all depends on what your expectations are going in.  I agree with all the people picking us for a top 4 finish, and getting the goals against down (249 last year, .5 goal per game better, totaling  213), but with the scoring down also (238 last season, down .5 goals a game, totaling 232).  These numbers were almost exactly what Everett had last season, and we know that was good for a tie with us for 2nd in the division.

So what are your expectations that make you think Seattle is ready to disappoint?

Wash, Rinse, Repeat

It is only preseason, or so I keep telling myself that over and over.

Same game, different night.
Well, not quite the same, but the basic formula was the same.

Seattle had a really bad slow start, and it showed.
Seattle got lucky when Elder went off for high sticking a minute and a half after Everett got it's second goal.  I thought for sure they would get a third and basically wrap the game up right there.

It is only preseason, or so I keep telling myself that over and over.

If I have my numbers correct, Everett got it's 3rd shot of the game right after their 2nd goal around the 6:15 mark of the first.  Their 4th shot game at the 19:00 mark of the first.  So they went 13 minutes of playing time between shots.
Seattle just controlled play the entire rest of the period.
The 2nd period was much the same.  Everett had 10 shots, and 7 of them came in a 2 minute window half way through the period.

It is only preseason, or so I keep telling myself that over and over.

Now, here was the difference from Friday night.
Seattle was back to shooting the puck wide of the net, and also afraid to take shots.
More then once, a Seattle player found themselves in the slot with a shot, but instead tried to make a pass.  Or they just plain held the puck too long, and the chance went away.
The 3rd period was also a little from the previous night.  Everett didn't dominate play as much, but instead, they just gave Seattle no chances.  Only 2 shots the entire 3rd period, and those came in the last 5 minutes.

It is only preseason, or so I keep telling myself that over and over.

As the previous night, the lines were changed again.  But Saturday, I actually thought they started to play better then the previous night.

I thought Flodell looked very good, and was beat by very nice deflections on two of the goals, and was left out to dry on the giveaway behind the net.  The only goal I really fault him on was the empty net goal, I mean come on, he was so far out of position sitting on the bench.

As has been pointed out in the write up's by Andy Eide, Nolan Volcan had a great night.
But the one player I thought had the best night and I have not seen it mentioned was Nick Holowko. He hit everything that moved when he had the chance, went very hard after the puck when he was on the ice, and played smart in his own zone.  He got his name on the score sheet with two checking from behind penalties.  One was a good call, the other somewhat questionable to me.

After this post, it is not preseason any longer, so I can't use that line any longer.

Another 4-1 loss to Everett

The first thing I have to remind myself was that this was a preseason game.

A game to try out things, see what works and what doesn't.
And a lot of things did work, and a lot of things didn't work.
So I am going to approach this as if was a regular season game, just for the practice.

I really liked Seattle's first two periods.  Especially the first.  They controlled play, sometimes in dominating fashion.  My only problem with it was that although they did get off 20 shots, I didn't think very many were quality shots.  But I also give Everett some credit there, for bending, but not breaking (for a football term).

One major breakdown in front of the net where Seattle couldn't clear the puck, and it ends up in the net.  On Everett's 2nd goal, the puck pin-balled around, sometimes on purpose, sometimes not, and ended up in the back of the net.  Everett's 3rd goal was from an amazingly tight angle.  I was at that end, and everyone around me thought it deflected off of Smith's stick, but no one in the press is saying it did, so maybe we are wrong (no jokes here please).

The 3rd period was when Seattle really needed to put on the pressure, and instead, it was all Everett. Everett held the puck and controlled the play much the way Seattle did in the 1st.  It took a lot of effort for Seattle to clear the puck, then make a change before the next wave of Tips brought it in.  It looked as though Portland was playing Seattle with nice passes, winning battles, etc.

At the end of the game trailing 4-1, Seattle did get a chance to practice with the extra attacker. Danny Mamaugh was pulled with a minute and a half to go in the game, but Seattle couldn't really get setup to do much.

The highlight of the night for me was watching Jared Hauf drop the gloves with Zane Jones after a scrum in front of the net.  The way Hauf was playing all night, he was looking for this type of play.  He was hitting everything in sight during the game.  And the fight just continued the hitting, as he seemed to use Jones as a bobble head.  Jones did get a couple in to make the fight closer to even, but a clear win for Hauf.

One other positive I took out of the game was the power-play.  When Seattle was able to gain control, I thought they moved the puck around well, and did get some good quality scoring chances.  They used the point players well, and for the most part, the passes were stick to stick.

The last positive was that I don't recall Seattle shooting the puck wide very often.  I sometimes joke that Seattle is the best at the league about missing the net, but tonight, it just didn't seem to happen very much.

Now on to the part of the game that just killed me watching (and the part where I have to remind myself that it was only preseason).

The lines were all mixed up, and changed somewhat throughout the night.  Partly because of special teams times, and part just to mix things up, but it just seemed like guys were not working well or getting in a groove with each other.  In reading some of the quotes from Andy Eide's article on the game, Coach wanted to remind Barzal and Gropp that things change, and that " (they) sometimes think it's going to come easy if they're together".  So he had them on two different lines.  Coach followed that quote up with "I liked both their games today".  I did not.  I thought they played well doing what they do, but I didn't think they meshed with their line-mates very well.  Maybe more practice with it, maybe with more time it would work, but I personally didn't think it worked well.  But, I do keep telling myself that a player must be able to play with different people, in different situations, and that it is only preseason.

It will be interesting to see how the team reacts tonight in the final tune up for next weekends games, especially knowing that they play this same Everett team in the home opener.

Some info to fill your week before the big weekend

Here is some interesting reading info to fill up your time until this weekend's preseason games.

I will be at both games, and as usual, will have my thoughts posted, probably on Sunday.

I hope to see a lot of you there Saturday night.

The first thing caught me completely off guard this morning.

http://www.tsn.ca/chl/story/?id=461398

It is a story about how the state of Washington is investigating the WHL teams to gain an understanding of the working conditions for the players.  This has gone as far as the attorney general, who is working on a legal opinion.

Second reading is a list of the top 40 NHL draft eligible players according to TSN's Director of Scouting Craig Button .  

http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=124661

The usual 3 are listed, Barzal, Gropp, and Bear.  Interesting to see Gropp lower then Bear, which is usually not the case.

Third reading is a complete joke.

http://www.chl.ca/article/chl-announces-pre-season-bmo-chl-top-10-rankings_163843

It is the BMO top 10 rankings.  And Seattle gets an honorable mention.

Lastly, if you want to compare WHL teams.

http://smallatlarge.blogspot.ca/2014/09/whl-roster-breakdown.html?m=1

Alan Caldwell has his amazing list of teams and what players they have left in camp.

What the list shows is the average age of each team and their average height and weight.

If you take a look, you might get a little bit scared about Seattle's situation.

Seattle is listed as one of the youngest team, and still have 5 20's.

To get further scared, if you look at the actual spreadsheet he has listed also, you will find that Seattle has the fewest number of games played for forwards.  And it is not close.

But there is a big change since the last couple of years.  Seattle comes in the middle of the pack for height and weight.  In previous years, Seattle was the tallest, and usually near the top of weight.

What I learned this weekend in Everett

Here is a list of what I learned from watching 8 hockey games in one weekend between 6 teams

• Evan Wardley has one mission right now, and that is hitting everyone that comes near him as hard as he can. Really, really hard. 
• Jared Hauf is being just like Wardley, and throwing his size around. 
• Seattle still has an issue at goaltending and which two they will keep.  All three looked good this weekend, with of course Flodell stealing the show with Sunday's performance. 
• Luke Osterman is a little antagonizer in a big frame. 
• Nick Holowko showed why he really wants to make this team. 
• The same can be said for Lane Pederson. 
• Shea Theodore is averaging 2 points per game.  That puts him on pace for 144 on the season.
• Alexander True left the team, but TRUE to his word, he came back. 
• Man can Florian Baltram skate well
• On the rosters they handed out, Baltram was listed as being from Vienna AUS.  I had to idea we had a player from Australia. 
• Taran Kozun only got to suit up in one game.  I guess being 20 and taking up a valuable game sheet roster spot if dressing has its advantages. 
• Giving up 10 powerplays in one game is not good. 
• Only allowing 1 goal in the 10 is not bad. 
• A note to Seattle shooters, the idea is to put the black puck in the net when you shoot, not wide, not over the top, but inside the net. 
• EVERY Seattle player was either even or plus on the +/- side of the scoresheet. 

Some non Seattle observations

• Victoria has a lot of players that are under 6 feet tall (shortest was 5'6), but they hustle like crazy and can really skate. 
• Oliver Bjorkstrand is one damn good player.  If he is not the best pure offensive player in the WHL this season, then whomever is better is a really damn good player. 
• Everett still has the worst goal judges in the league.
• Note to the goal judges, the puck must go across that little red line in front of you in order to turn on the flashy light, not wide, not in front, but behind. 
• Note number two, a shot on net is only counted when the puck would go across said line in note number one, but someone stopped it from crossing. 
• If you can believe it, the off ice officials in Everett are even worse. 
• The WHL still doesn't know how to schedule officials.  How does every game of the 9 have 2 officials, except the last game. 
• Brooklyn Bros. Pizzeria still has amazing pizza, but their service still sucks. 
• The price of beer at a hockey game is way to high. 
• Spokane's Tamas Laday is listed at 6'6, and that is tall.  Everyone was going after him to see just how tough that size is. 
• Don Nachbaur is still the best dressed coach in the WHL. 
• Wearing your mouthguard is a very important rule now. 
• Having your mouthguard fall out, and keep playing is ok. 
• Doing a dry cut on the ice between regulation and OT is......whats the words I am looking for.......STUPID, BORING, MOMENTUM BREAKING, EXCITEMENT DOWNER, and most of all USELESS. 

Blue/White/Camp Thoughts

"Training Camp" wrapped up Monday with the annual Blue/White scrimmage where Team White took down Team Blue 4-2. It's always exciting to see some hockey again but I also think fans and bloggers alike tend to get a little too worked up over a few scrimmage sets. The fact is, these kids are only showing what they have over a very small set of days and I would hate to think that decisions of any large scale magnitude are being made based on a few days over, say, an entire season(s) worth of a players history.

That said... here are a few thoughts I had from watching the Blue/White game and one of the scrimmages.