Live TV (!!) Game Thread

Since we get a real live televised game tonight (7:30 Root Sports). I'm going to open this game thread for people to comment as we go along. I'll be tweeting as well.

14 losses in a Row, yup.

I haven't really had the heart to write much in the past couple of days. The Tbirds have now lost 14 straight and the Hawks got their hearts ripped out on Sunday. But, I suppose the show must go on and I have to provide for a fresh new post for people to complain about the team and complain about Russ Farwell (you're welcome?).

As has been the case over much of the 14 game losing streak, Seattle didn't play horribly this past Saturday at home and Sunday in Tri-City, they just didn't play well enough to win. The team is locked in a deadly stretch where they have mental and physical breakdowns and opposing teams are making them pay for them nearly every single time.

Bullet holes... because I'm lazy today.

• Mitch Elliot took a Kneeing Major on Sunday night when he ran into Connor Rankin of Tri-City. It appears that Rankin escaped with only a thigh bruise and that is really good news. I hate to see anyone ever get hurt like that. I stated my case on Twitter and got into an argument with Andy Kemper about the extent of the penalty and I stand by my position. I watched the replay several times and posted a screen shot of the hit. Elliot's knee is barely extended (and I'm being generous there) and is never turned out. In full speed it appears that Elliot goes for the hit and Rankin avoids it and their legs collide. If Elliot gets more than a game or two I'd be pretty disappointed.
• 6 Tbird players were listed today in the Central Scouting rankings. Theodore, Lipsbergs, Hauf, Honey, Smith and Sheen are all listed in the top 210 North American skater rankings. Three thoughts here: A) Awesome. B) How in the world can we not make the playoffs with this kind of perceived talent. C) When teams lose 14 games in a row it is easy to lose sight of this but things "should" continue to improve in Tbirds land. All of these players are back next season and all should be highly motivated to improve their game before the NHL draft and after it if they are lucky enough to be selected. CSS Rankings can be found here.
• With just 28 games remaining in the season the Tbirds sit only 3 points ahead of Prince George for the 8th and final spot in the playoffs and the distinct pleasure of getting their asses handed to them by the Portland Cheaterhawks. As bad as they have played... they are only 1 point behind Everett for 7th place.
• Updated Massey Ratings - Seattle has slipped (not surprisingly) down to 17th in the league and while things were looking better than the record indicated earlier in the season... things are now just about as bad as the record indicates. Seattle's metrics have taken a serious hit during this 14 game stretch. The offense still ranks 10th in the league but the defense has slipped all the way down to 19th. I've said it before and I will say it again... Offense is not the primary issue with this team. Massey Ratings can be found here.

The season is starting to slip away but there IS still time to stop the bleeding and get into the playoffs. If Seattle finishes 8th I think they get smashed by Portland but if they finish 7th I think they have at least a punchers chance against a team like Kelowna or Kamloops.

Debating the merits of Plus/Minus

Just a quick note here. There have been a handful of comments regarding Seattle releasing Rouse instead of Lockhart so I want to address the point quickly.

Yes... on the surface Lockhart is -28 while Rouse was +4 on a team where MANY players are in the minus category. There is most certainly an argument to be made that perhaps Lockhart should have been the player released instead of Rouse but that argument shouldn't and doesn't start and end by simply looking at Plus/Minus.

To look at one statistic (much less a greatly flawed one such as Plus/Minus) to determine the merits of a player is to make an overly simplistic and poor argument.  Rouse might be better than Lockhart but you can't determine or prove that simple by looking at Plus/Minus.  Players bring different things to the table and you have to consider the entire package.

Another overly simplistic and equally as flawed argument would be to say that the team needs scoring and Lockhart has 14 goals while Rouse has 6 goals. So... that must mean that Lockhart is better and the TBirds made the correct decision, right? No, wrong.

Here's another one. Jacob Doty and Riley Sheen. Yes, Sheen is -21 and Doty is not. Anyone who watched the team the last couple of years couldn't possibly think Doty was better than Sheen. Doty is playing for what is likely a better team... so of course his Plus/Minus number is going to be better.

I mentioned earlier that Plus/Minus is a flawed statistic. Some/most consider it to be more of a "team stat" than an individual one. That's not entirely true but it also isn't entirely false either, which makes it a flawed evaluation tool.

I've already spent too many words on this and I think you all get the point. You can't cherry pick stats simply to prove your point. Well, actually you can... just don't expect me to take you seriously when you do it.

Plus/Minus is a statistic that can be used a part of statistical evaluation. To use is as the only tool is simple ineffective.

More words on Johnson

Got a first hand account of Andrew Johnson from a Moose Jaw fan who is a friend of mine.

"Johnson has potential it just never seemed to work out here (Moose Jaw). Sticks up for his teammates but isn't the toughest guy in the world. Decent scrapper for his size. His -20 has more to do with the team being bad than his play. He goes for the hit all the time."

That last part is of particular importance to me. I tweeted during the game Tuesday about the lack of hitting on the team right now. A guy like this might also be exactly what the team needs.

Adam Kambeitz to Seattle

Seattle gives up a 3rd round Bantam pick in 2014 to land 20 year old Adam Kambeitz. I think this is a good trade for Seattle. Kambeitz has been known in the past as being a hard working, tough player with good leadership qualities. Something this team seems to be sorely lacking right now.

My best guess is that this means the end of the line for Brendan Rouse. It could also be Luke Lockhart or Brandon Glover but my guess is that it will be Rouse.

Andrew "The President" Johnson to Seattle

Seattle picks up Andrew Johnson from Moose Jaw for a 4th round bantam selection. That seems to me like a bit of a high price for an 18 year old who is -20 (worst on the Warriors). I'll get a more detailed report later.

This appears to be the only move that Seattle made today.

Trade Deadline Day

It's trade deadline day and the deadline is 2pm local time. Seattle dropped another game last night in Spokane by the score of 4-1.

I have a hard time thinking that any other teams are actually going to want our players right now but SOMETHING has to be done by Russ.

Please get me some players who actually give a shit about winning and actually care about working hard and aren't content to just go through the motions on a nightly basis.  Not every player is afflicted with this disease but a lot of the team is and it's time to start finding some players who want to bring it on a nightly basis.

Tbirds drop 11th Straight

I don't know how much in the way of poignant comments I have to make today after Seattle drops their 11th contest in a row last night, falling 4-3 to the Spokane Chiefs. I didn't think the team played terrible but I didn't think they played well either. I would echo the thoughts of some of the comments people have been making that guys like Lockhart need to step up their game and start playing better and showing some leadership to get the team pulled out of this funk they are in.

Want some really sobering stats courtesy of a friend of the blog?

Seattle's record in January the past several seasons.

2009-10 - 12 games (1-8-3-0)
2010-11 - 15 games (2-11-1-1)
2011-12 - 14 games (1-11-1-1)
2012-13 - 3 games (0-3-0-0)

Add that up and we have 44 games and a record of 4-33-5-2. 4 wins in 44 games and only 15 out of 88 possible points. WOW.  We all knew this but when you put it to paper... just staggering.

I'd love to know what Coach K means when he says that players aren't buying into the system. There are things that we can easily see as fans... things like lack of effort, lack of physical play, etc. but I just wonder if these are the same things Coach K is talking about or whether there are some "system" type things guys aren't doing.

In the first period, I counted exactly one meaningful hit and that was delivered by Hickman along the far boards at the south end. In the second, a meaningful hit caused a turnover and lead to the Elliot goal. It's hard to figure out why players don't understand what it takes to win.

Brandon Glover obviously had a bit of a tough night but I would hardly blame the loss on him.  The penalty and goal 19 seconds in were pretty much all his fault but he battled hard after that to keep Seattle in the game. The 2nd goal was one he'll want to have back but he also should be getting more help from his Defense there. The 3rd was deflected and the 4th was a giveaway. Let's not be too quick to blame the goaltender.

Seth Swenson had a nice game last night. Picked up an assist on the Troock goal where he dropped the puck off to Troock and went hard to the net to set a nice screen on Spokane goaltender Eric Williams. He wound up +2 for the night as well.

Nice little fight for Daniel Wray. He didn't wind up exchanging that many punches with Adam Smith but they charged at each other like gladiators. Respect.

I didn't see Shea Theodore's giveaway that lead to the 4th and game winning Spokane goal because I had to leave for my own game. I was told that it was a pretty bad decision. Theodore scored a goal earlier in the game so it wasn't as if the entire night was a complete loss but I still wonder whether he is battling an injury. Things just don't quite seem right with him.

At this point... the streak is more mental than anything else and the team just needs to find a way to break out and have a good game and get a win to stop the bleeding.

Kamloops hammers Seattle

Not as much time to update today as I had hoped for... so here are just some quick thoughts.

• Seattle actually got off to a decent start in the game last night but they weren't really generating much in the way of genuine scoring chances as much as they were just possessing the puck. The effort was decent but it wasn't translating into many scoring chances.  Hickman's goal on the PP was a good smart shot that came off an end board carom but I wouldn't even call that much of a scoring chance as much as it was just a smart play.
• After Freshman Danny Mumaugh gave up a couple of soft goals the team seemed to crumble. The mental state of the team appears to be in shambles right now and when things start to go poorly... things are falling apart. What should be happening... is the players pulling up their proverbial boot straps and getting back to work hitting people and flying around the ice. Instead, they appears to lose focus and energy and things just get worse. Mumaugh will have better days and the TBirds have to play for him instead of thinking he is going to do the job for them.
• Shea Theodore looks a little lost to me. Obviously, he was benched a couple of games ago down in Portland and his game just doesn't seem to be right. He was blown by for a goal last night falling for a fake shot and he was separated from the puck on several occasions in his own zone. Makes me wonder if he is hurt or something else is wrong.
• This team isn't THIS bad and some of that has to fall on Coach K. It isn't entirely his fault because coaches coach and players play. Coaches do have the ability to "push the right buttons" and right now he isn't doing it. This team is regressing instead of progressing.
• Don't look for Seattle to be trading for Alex Forsberg as rumors have it that Prince George is demanding a King's ransom to obtain him. I'm not sure how PG thinks they can bash a guy's work ethic and character and expect to get maximum value in return. IF indeed Forsberg has work ethic and character issues (and perhaps brother Jesse would know... since playing with his brother obviously didn't keep him in PG) and the Cougars are insisting on a crazy price tag... I'd just assume pass on him and find someone else. If they want Gropp... I'm game. If they want someone else... I'm passing.

Dare I say it... but if Seattle doesn't start to pull the nose up on this diving plane, we may be looking at another year outside of the playoffs. Something that seemed very improbable just a month ago.

Tips drop Tbirds

Seattle drops a big one to Everett last nigh 2-1. These losses are going to hurt down the stretch and I'm starting to lose a little bit of faith in this team's ability to get this done the rest of the way. Things are going to have turn around in a hurry if the Tbirds want to avoid another 2nd half tail spin.

Seattle came out firing on all cylinders to start the game last night and got an early lead courtesy of a nice feed by Connor Honey to Alexander Delnov who made a quick move to the backhand and beat Austin Lotz for the 1-0 lead. Taylor Green picked up the 2nd assist playing on that line and I thought he was decent again as a forward. Nothing spectacular, but I think he can give the team some useful minutes there. I noticed they also tried him on the PP for a short time as well.

Things seemed to fall apart after Seattle got the lead and Everett closed the period by closing the gap in shots. Momentum shifted for good after Everett tied the game and Seattle failed to capitalize on a 5 on 3 opportunity.

Quick side note: I want to once again point out to the faithful Tbird fans that yelling "shooooooooot" and thinking that simply "shooting" the puck on a PP actually works as an effective power play. It doesn't. I know this sounds quite simple but when you have more skaters on the ice than the other team, you should have the ability to obtain a GOOD shot... not just any old shot. Think back to all the times you've wanted players/teams to just shoot the puck only to have it blocked. Well... that's what the PK unit is trying to do. They are trying to clog the shooting lanes and keep shots from getting through to the goaltender. This is also why there tends to be so much room around the outside.  Seattle failed on the 5 on 3 chance... but it wasn't because they didn't "shoot", it was because they failed to get a good shot and Shea Theodore tried multiple times to hit the weak side post forward and wasn't able to get the puck there.

Bullet holes... because who doesn't like their quasi wisdom broken into neat little nuggets.

• Branden Troock was back and looked both dangerous and rusty at different times. It was good to see him back out there though and if he can stay healthy he will definitely have an impact on some games.
• Effort and Execution. If I were a coach, those would be the two things I'd be preaching to my team. We have to have effort first and execution second. Last night the TBirds get a B- for effort and an F for execution. There were stretches where I felt like Everett simply outworked Seattle but for the most part the effort was there. The execution was not. Too many shots that weren't one-timed on the PP and too many times where the shots came too late and Lotz had already had a chance to square up to the shot.
• Evan Wardley... can't tip shots around the net. Block it with the body or get out of the way. That first goal should have never happened.
• Alex Forsberg, brother of Jesse, has requested a trade out of PG and is going to play somewhere else until he gets a trade. His brother plays here, we have extra D, we have a hole in the 17 year old forward group. This just makes WAY too much sense.  Russ has probably already had a phone call with PG as I type this up.
• Officiating wasn't very good last night but it wasn't why the TBirds lost. Stop whining about the officials people... this is a development league for both players and officials. You aren't getting an NHL crew out there. Stop Whining. Officiating is a tough job, sometimes it is done well and sometimes it is done poorly... just like how hockey teams play.

I don't have the heart to travel to Everett tonight after that game but I will be watching from the comfy cozy confines of the Hunnex basement. Seattle badly, badly needs a win tonight.