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1.29.2010

Gators TONIGHT!! Tbirds FSN!! 7:00

Too excited about watching the TBirds on television tonight with a bunch of Tbirds fans to really write anything coherent today.

Weather you love my writing or not.... come to Gators tonight and root on the Tbirds together.

Game starts at 7:00 PM

1.28.2010

Ouch Ouch Ouch Ouch

Tbirds give up 4 Power Play goals in the 3rd period to lose to the Kelowna Rockets last night.

As I pointed out yesterday, I thought the season was already over so I'm not going to fret the loss too much.

Seattle fans haven't had to go through this in 6 years... but the Seattle Thunderbirds will not be playing in the 2010 WHL Playoffs.

What this means is that we are reduced to looking for progress and hopefully the players realize that there are still reasons to play hard the rest of the season. This team needs to improve and you don't improve by playing like the games don't matter. As a former athlete, I know personally how hard it can be to put forth your best effort every single game knowing that you can't make it to the post-season.

So what should we look for... starting Friday at the Tbirds viewing party at Gators hosted by myself and the Seattle Thunderbirds at 7pm as the Tbirds play on FSN (shameless plug).

Here's what I would look for.

1) Brenden Dillon. I'm not convinced that Dillon is a lock to make this team as a 20 year old next season and each game is an audition for him to make the team next season. He needs to shore up his defensive zone coverage while increasing his physical play. I think Dillon plays best when he is actively looking to punish the puck carrier and he needs to take it to the next level.

2) Mikhail Sentyurin. Sentyurin has had a rough season with the Tbirds. He wasn't able to play until mid-October and had a rough start once he was able to play taking 16 games to record his first point. He went through a stretch of about 6 or 7 games where he looked pretty good but has now fallen back again and has found himself a healthy scratch in a couple of games. The Tbirds will have high 1st and 2nd round import draft picks and if Sentyurin can't show some progress here over the final 23 games, Seattle might be in the market for two imports this spring.

3) 20 year olds. Even harder than playing out a season going nowhere... is playing out a season going nowhere knowing that your career might be coming to a close. Prab Rai has motivation to play hard to impress Vancouver, but Lindsay Nielsen and Jeremy Schappert are probably playing to impress some Canadian University coaches. It will be interesting to see how this crew can finish out the season.

That is enough for now.....

Viewing party tomorrow... Gators in Kent, 7pm, FSN... watch with Tbird fans. Be there.

1.27.2010

Big game tonight... or is it?

Tbirds at Kelowna tonight in what is being billed as a pretty big or "must win" game.

Quick side bar before getting to my point.

Lately I have been accused a lot of being an "apologist" to everything and everyone from the GM to the Coach to individual players. While I shouldn't let reader comments bother me, I have often been candid and honest about the fact that sometimes these comments DO bother me and this is one of them.

Since when did it become so "cool" and fashionable to be so negative and hateful about the team. Do I really look at the team through glasses that are so rosy? How is saying "this team just isn't very good" looking through rose colored glasses?

How is saying "this team really needs to draft better" bowing down to the powers that be?

This goes out to all the "fire Rob" guys, the "Russ should step down" guys, the "fire Colin(s)" guys.... I want what you guys want! I want a team that competes for the WHL each and every season. I want this team to do better... to draft better, to play better and to draw better attendance. I believe I'm being realistic about what is happening to this team and some fans think everyone should be fired. Ok... I get it, that's fine. Just keep in mind that we're all wishing and hoping for the same thing, we might just disagree on how the team (WE!!) get there.

I try very hard to offer up evidence to support my "thoughts" and "theories" and some evidence is better than others.

And that leads me back to my point...

I would suggest that tonight's game doesn't matter at all because the season is already lost and the playoffs are all but gone and here's why.

Sure Seattle could sweep the 4 games against Kelowna and give themselves a shot but have we seen anything that would suggest that is even possible?

As always Alan Caldwell has another good read today on what teams need to do in order to make the playoffs. You can read it here. The basic idea is that teams in the Western Conference need roughly 64 points to make the playoffs (the other day I said Kelowna might get to 66 points if they played at their same pace. A 3-1 or 4-0 record against them would knock them off that pace).

In order for Seattle to get to 64 points they need to go 14-10.

That doesn't seem that bad until you realize that Seattle only has 14 wins on the entire season and hasn't earned 28 points in any 24 game stretch all season.

In addition, this Seattle team has scored more than 3 goals exactly 1 time in the last 15 games.

Fans... it's over.

Is that negative enough people?

1.26.2010

Hickman practices with the team

As reported by Thom Buening (nice!) on facebook (wow) Tbirds 2nd round bantam selection Justin Hickman was practicing with the team today in Kelowna.

Hickman is from Kelowna so I'm not going to get too excited about seeing him in uniform tomorrow until... well... I see him in uniform. It is certainly possible the Birds might have brought him in for just this game, or this quick 4 games in 5 nights stretch before sending him back to Kelowna.

Gators Viewing Party Friday

I'm going to hit you guys over the head repeatedly with the reminder that I will be helping "host" (I guess you could call it that) a viewing party of the Tbirds game on FSN on Friday at Gators Bar in Kent.

Game starts at 7pm and I will be down there by around 6:30. Let's pack the place and make them put the Thunderbirds on every television in the place. We don't get these opportunities very often to get together and watch the Tbirds on REAL TELEVISION!

In case people don't know... Gators is located at 21609 84th Avenue South
Kent, WA 98032.

Also you can find the location here.

1.25.2010

Portland just bigger, faster and stronger

Didn't really have time to get a game recap up yesterday but there wasn't much entertaining or good to write about Saturday's game anyway.

Seattle goes down 6-1 on Saturday night. Portland just flat out looked bigger, faster, stronger and more hungry. I've said it before here and I'll say it again... I think Portland is a team to watch out for come playoff time. I personally think they are better than Tri and I definitely think they are better than Everett. Last night in Vancouver, Ian Curtis even gave them a 51 save effort in a 3-1 win. If they get goaltending like that... look out. I just think the reason they aren't higher in the standings is because they are still learning how to be consistent night in and night out and quite honestly that could hurt them come playoff time too.

Wait... isn't this a Tbirds blog? Oops... sorry.

Point is... this Portland team is going to be very good for a couple of seasons and if there is a team out there that Seattle should be afraid of, its going to be Portland.

I loved the fact that Seattle finally showed a little bit of heart at the end of the game getting into a few fights and sending a message to Portland that they aren't just going to be pushed around... problem was they probably lost each one of the fights with Ramsay probably earning a draw. For the most part, the Winterhawks are just flat out bigger than Seattle and that might be something of a concern for Seattle going forward.

Let's take a quick look at the average size of each team taking out the goalies.

Seattle has an average height of 72.43 inches, which is roughly 6'.5" and weighing in at 187.43 lbs.

Now Portland... the Winterhawks check in at an average of 74 inches, 6'2" exactly and 194.28 lbs.

A difference of nearly 2 inches and 7 pounds. The weight probably isn't very significant and I must also mention that the weights that the teams report, that then get placed on the WHL website aren't always super accurate so let's throw that out and just focus on the height. A 2 inch difference is pretty significant over a sample size of 21 players.

You take into account the fact that Portland is also NOT a very old team and wow that team looks scary for the next couple of years. Next season they will lose Francis, Schneider, Doyle and Sbisa... so you can't ignore that loss of talent. Seattle will lose Rai, Nielsen, Schappert.

Should be a very interesting couple of years with Portland being pretty solidly ahead of Seattle at this point.

Back to the game...

Pickard had a rare off night. Not very often I have to say that so I guess I need to point that out. He had trouble with his rebound control for most of the night and on a couple of chances he wound up in trouble for it. Having said that... as it usually is, hockey is a team game and the rest of the team wasn't really givng Pickard much of a chance to do better. Sometimes when your goaltender is kicking out rebounds, your team defense needs to help him out and clear out loose pucks and shut down attackers looking for rebounds and Seattle just didn't do that.

The list is just not good...

Schappert -1
Ramsay -2
Dillon -3
Aasman -2
Muth -2
Fleming -1

The bad defense was pretty much across the board and this unit has got to get better in the next year if this team wants to hope they can take a step forward.

Only TBirds that didn't have a minus night, Rouse and Gallimore.

So Seattle spends the next two days licking their wounds and gets ready for what is likely the most critical week of the season.

Wednesday at Kelowna is a must win, Friday at Spokane (GAME IS ON FSN!!), Saturday at Portland and Sunday back at home against Kelowna.

Can Seattle still make the playoffs?? The short answer is maybe but the climb is going to be really tough. 10 points behind Kelowna with 2 games in hand, the Tbirds are going to need a lot of help from Kelowna in order to catch them.

Let's look at a few scenarios.

Kelowna has a win percentage of .460 with 22 games remaining. If they stay at that exact level they wind up with 66 points (I'm skipping the math for you guys).

Seattle currently has 36 points with 24 games to play. In order to wind up with 66 points they need to earn 30 points out of a possible 48. Thats a win percentage of .625. Let's put this in chart form.

Kelowna record over their remaining games - What Seattle needs to do...

11-11, .500, 68 points - 16-8, .667, 68 points
10-11-1, .477, 67 points - 15-8-1, .646, 67 points
10-12, .460, 66 points - 15-9, .625, 66 points
9-12-1, .432, 65 points - 14-9-1, .604, 65 points
9-13, .409, 64 points - 14-10, .583, 64 points
8-13-1, .386, 63 points - 13-10-1, .5625, 63 points
8-14, .364, 62 points - 13-11, .542, 62 points

If we take Kelowna's last 10 games and use that as a recent marker they have 8 points out of a possible 20 (.400). So IF Kelowna were to go 8-13-1, basically 17 out of a possible 44 points... Seattle would need to "only" go 13-10-1 (27 out of 48 points) in order to catch them.

In order for any of this to even make sense, Seattle MUST go at least 3-1 in their 4 remaining games against Kelowna. A 2-2 split in those 4 games would then require Kelowna go go 6-11-1 the rest of the way and Seattle 11-8-1. THAT is a tall order.

Impossible? No. Difficult? Extremely.

One last point...

I want to get this out there and publicize it every single day until Friday. Friday I will be helping "host" a Tbirds viewing part at Gators in Kent. We're going to try to get a bunch of Tbirds fans together for a rare opportunity to watch the Tbirds on television together, have some drinks and make a little noise when (if?) the Birds score in Spokane.

1.20.2010

Roster Reconstruction - Dream Edition

Ok... so I've been pretty quiet lately. Mostly because I haven't been able to catch much in the way of Tbirds hockey. What I have seen is a team that is now playing hard together as a unit. I'm sure there is a certain level of frustration associated with the one goal losses, but the team is playing hard and when you play hard eventually the wins and losses will take care of themselves.

Notice I did say eventually... and that may not happen until next season, or the second half of next season or even 2011. I really hope it doesn't take that long, but of course the team needs to combine effort with skill and size and those are two things Seattle doesn't have a ton of right now.

That doesn't mean we don't have players with potential, it just means that those raw skills aren't quite ready to win games consistently in this league. Over the summer, a lot of players take giant leaps forward and most players make some kind of improvement... either in their skating, their size, their strength or possibly all three. By this time next year, I really expect that this group of players will have improved a lot and be in the playoff race.

With the news of Jacob Fallon... I had this idea that maybe we should reconstruct what this roster looks like and what it "could" look like next season if some players like Fallon were to come over. These are my best guesses because I obviously don't have access to our "list" of players.

Players will be listed by their age for next season.

Goaltenders

Calvin Pickard (18)
Michael Salmon (18)
Jared D'Amico (16)
Dan Kowalski (16)

Fowards

Brenden Silvester (19)
Robbie Ciolfi (19)
Charles Wells (19)
Burke Gallimore (19)
Brennan Tutt (18)
Mikhail Sentyurin (18)
Brendan Rouse (18)
Luke Lockhart (18)
Chance Lund (18)
Jacob Fallon (18)
Jason Zucker (18)*
Tyler Alos (17)
Colin Jacobs (17)
Mitch Elliot(t) (17)
Connor Sanvido (17)
Jacob Doty (17)
Seth Ambroz (17)*
Joey Baker (17)
Gus Correale (17)
Jordan Salahor (17)
Brandon Troock (16)
Stefan Burzan (16)
Justin Hickman (16)
Jetlan Houcher (16)
Jayson Ness (16)
Kyle Horsman (16)
Patrick D'Amico (16)
Alex Kerfoot (16)
Jeffrey Kennedy (16)

Defense

Brendan Dillon (20)
Scott Ramsay (19)
Erik Bonsor (19)
Ryan Aasman (18)
Erik Fleming (18)
Jared Crema (18)
Austin Frank (17)
Tanner Muth (17)
Zach Walker (17)
Evan Wardley (16)
John Dora (16)


You'll immediately notice a few things here. One... our depth at forward is potentially huge but I've included a couple of kids who may not ever have a chance of coming here.

That list has 29 forwards against only 11 defensemen to go with 4 goaltenders.

Can we dream for just a minute. Let's just say that Jacob Fallon comes here. Maybe that opens the flood gates to bring Seth Ambroz and Jason Zucker in as well.

Let's just for a second pretend that happens.

You could potentially carry 14 forwards that look like this:

Silvester
Ciolfi
Wells
Gallimore
Rouse
Lockhart
Lund
Fallon
Zucker
Alos
Jacobs
Elliot
Sanvido
Ambroz
Troock

Oops... you'll notice that is 15 skaters (on purpose) and you'll notice that doesn't even include Tutt, Sentyurin or Doty... or Baker... or Burzan... or anyone else.

The point is, this roster might get very hard to crack if those kids come to Seattle and it will create this incredible atmosphere where kids are really going to have to work hard and play well to keep their spot, especially if they are 16-18 years old.

Plus... you'll notice that Seattle only has one 20 year old slated for the roster next season and it is quite possible that 1 or perhaps 2 O/A players will be brought in, making the roster even tougher to crack.

The fact is that Fallon, Ambroz and Zucker are probably still unlikely to be here with Fallon perhaps having the best chance considering the latest developments.

Now let's look at the defense. The depth really isn't there and the defense might be a concern going forward.

Dillon back as a 20 year old doesn't seem like a sure thing, but when you consider the lack of defensive depth he will probably be back. I don't really hide my level of respect for Scott Ramsay and clearly next season is make or break for Erik Bonsor if he wants to prove he should have a spot on the team as a 20 year old in two years.

Austin Frank probably makes it next season as well.

Aasman, Fleming and Muth give you a pretty decent trio of young D-Men and Zach Walker is a pretty sure bet to make this team next year. I honestly don't know if Seattle still has Jared Crema listed so he might not really factor in here at all. Evan Wardley and John Dora... well you are officially on notice that there is a roster spot to be had for probably at least one of you and perhaps both if you impress in training camp next year.

Goaltending... well not much to discuss here, Pickard is the starter and it will be up to Salmon to prove he should remain his backup over the two young kids coming in.

Seattle also has at least one import slot and at least 2 O/A spots next season and it isn't a sure bet that Sentyurin will return, so you might have two import picks.

Understand of course that Fallon, Zucker and Ambroz may never set foot in Seattle to play for the TBirds but the possibility has me thinking about how good this roster could look just 12 months from now.

1.19.2010

Is Jacob Fallon the next Seattle Thunderbird?

Jacob Fallon, who at last check was a listed player for the Tbirds has reportedly quit the WSNDT. 3 of his fellow players were suspended from the team but reports are that Fallon was not suspended and just quit.

Story can be found here.

Assuming this is true... we could possibly see Fallon in Seattle as early as next fall or also not at all. Obviously this is speculation but his rights are held by the Tbirds, so if he wants to go the Junior route he would be coming here. Fallon is also from Texas, so perhaps Jacobs could convince him to come here??

Again no sure thing, but we can always hope.

1.15.2010

Seattle at Tri-City Live Chat


1.14.2010

I'm back....

Seattle earns a point last night on the road against the Americans. The Tbirds have played the Americans very tough this year despite Tri-City being the top team in the Western Conference.

I didn't see or hear much of the game but it sounded like a good effort by the team to earn a point.

I'm back from vacation and ready for the stretch run. To kick off the stretch run... let's try doing my first ever live chat tomorrow night for Seattle at Tri, part II this week.

I'll be watching the game and doing live chat providing comments. We'll see how many people want to show up to heckle or chat about the game with me... might be 5 might be 50, I guess we'll find out.

To chris... yeah that is a very good idea but I will probably save that for the beginning of next season.

I don't really expect Seattle to make the playoffs.... but I actually do expect that they will play a little bit better to finish out the season with the new players that were acquired. So we'll see what happens.

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