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Big game tonight... or is it?

Tbirds at Kelowna tonight in what is being billed as a pretty big or "must win" game.

Quick side bar before getting to my point.

Lately I have been accused a lot of being an "apologist" to everything and everyone from the GM to the Coach to individual players. While I shouldn't let reader comments bother me, I have often been candid and honest about the fact that sometimes these comments DO bother me and this is one of them.

Since when did it become so "cool" and fashionable to be so negative and hateful about the team. Do I really look at the team through glasses that are so rosy? How is saying "this team just isn't very good" looking through rose colored glasses?

How is saying "this team really needs to draft better" bowing down to the powers that be?

This goes out to all the "fire Rob" guys, the "Russ should step down" guys, the "fire Colin(s)" guys.... I want what you guys want! I want a team that competes for the WHL each and every season. I want this team to do better... to draft better, to play better and to draw better attendance. I believe I'm being realistic about what is happening to this team and some fans think everyone should be fired. Ok... I get it, that's fine. Just keep in mind that we're all wishing and hoping for the same thing, we might just disagree on how the team (WE!!) get there.

I try very hard to offer up evidence to support my "thoughts" and "theories" and some evidence is better than others.

And that leads me back to my point...

I would suggest that tonight's game doesn't matter at all because the season is already lost and the playoffs are all but gone and here's why.

Sure Seattle could sweep the 4 games against Kelowna and give themselves a shot but have we seen anything that would suggest that is even possible?

As always Alan Caldwell has another good read today on what teams need to do in order to make the playoffs. You can read it here. The basic idea is that teams in the Western Conference need roughly 64 points to make the playoffs (the other day I said Kelowna might get to 66 points if they played at their same pace. A 3-1 or 4-0 record against them would knock them off that pace).

In order for Seattle to get to 64 points they need to go 14-10.

That doesn't seem that bad until you realize that Seattle only has 14 wins on the entire season and hasn't earned 28 points in any 24 game stretch all season.

In addition, this Seattle team has scored more than 3 goals exactly 1 time in the last 15 games.

Fans... it's over.

Is that negative enough people?


stbird said...

In some ways I don't want the Tbirds to make the playoffs. But on the other hand would it be better for our young team to make it, even if we get sweept by Tri, just to have a little experience in the playoffs?

Thunnex said...

I think this argument that a young team "needs" playoff experience is questionable at best.

If a young team makes the playoffs and gets swept in 4 games, I find it hard to believe they actually learn anything from that.

If that young team makes the playoff, pulls off an upset and/or takes a really good team to 7 games I think you could make a small case for added experience.

So... I personally think the impact is minimal at best.

Jon said...

Or you let the young team grow, trade off young unusable assets for players with that playoff experience...

Thunnex said...

That is a really excellent point. Much like what the Tbirds did a couple of seasons ago when they traded for Brett Robertson from Prince George.

That team didn't necessarily lack playoff experience but when they traded for Robertson he came in with 46 games of playoff experience.

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