Hockey Challenge 2013

Just a quick note today.

I have updated the banner at the top of the blog to reflect the NEW Hockey Challenge info for the 2013 game.  I will once again be asking the generous readers of this blog to donate to the Ronald McDonald House in the name of my team for the Challenge. My IEB team is still undefeated at the Challenge and we will once again be looking to continue our winning and fundraising ways.

Updated stats from Massey Ratings have reflected the Tbirds recent games and they have slipped to 10th in the WHL. That is to be expected after a sub-par road swing. 8th in offense, 15th in defense. They have played the 2nd toughest schedule.

I have to say that if you were lucky enough to watch some of the games, as I did, you would have likely come to the conclusion that they deserved a much better record on the road trip. Most fans are going to look to the record and find a reason to resume bitching and whining and complaining but in my opinion the play did not reflect on the wins and losses.  I truly believe we are seeing a much improved team and I think the wins will start to come a bit easier as they come together and learn to win a bit more.  Keep in mind that this team has turned over and changed a lot in the past season and I think this is the type of team that will get stronger as the season progresses.

Updated Massey Ratings can be found here.

Write Something Already

You may have noticed I haven't written anything in several weeks. Believe me... I've noticed too.  I've really enjoyed just being a "fan" lately and not feeling the pressure to write anything after games. Some of you have noticed that I still try to tweet out some stuff during games and you should definitely follow me on twitter so that we can interact during games.

Today is obviously election day and that is definitely important but the Tbirds also have a game tonight in Brandon that starts at 5pm local time. Did you know that Brandon is 1,429 miles away from Seattle if you go the long way through North Dakota but it's only 1,269 miles away if you head north at Coeur d'Alene and go  by way of the Trans-Canada Hwy. In other words... Brandon is pretty far east. By the way, the game tonight can only be heard streamed on am1090, ESPN710 or on the radio dial at 96.5 KJAQ.

Believe it or not... Statistically, Seattle is actually a pretty good team this year. Massey Ratings has Seattle ranked 7th in the WHL and actually had them as high as 4th the week before. Part of the reason for their high ranking is their moderate success against what current ranks as the toughest schedule in the league. Casual fans drive me crazy all the time talking about how the offense is to blame with the Tbirds lose. Well, Seattle ranks 5th offensively and 12th defensively in the league. The offense might have been a problem in previous years but you have to keep the puck out of your own net as well.

The U.S. Division is rated as the toughest division and the Western Conference is rated as being tougher than the East.

Also... in case people are curious they currently project Seattle to finish with 36 wins which would be good for 72 points but that doesn't cover any loser points. So that probably projects out to around 80ish points.

Hickman leads Tbirds to victory

Conventional wisdom would tell you that Alexander Delnov (2 g, 2 a) led the Tbirds to victory last night. It would also be perfectly reasonable to suggest Connor Sanvido and his 2 goal effort or maybe Luke Lockhart and his 2 goals would be your choice for 1st star of the game.  All would be reasonable selections. I'm here to tell you that the player of the game last night was Justin Hickman.

Coming out flat in the 2nd period after they had dominated the 1st, Seattle found itself quickly down 2-1 after a minute and fifteen seconds. The crowd of 4,145 deflated and it looked as though the game may have turned I would have called timeout but Konowalchuk knows his team better than I do and exactly 2 minutes later Hickman would engage Carter Proft in a fight that lasted little more than 10-15 seconds but changed the course of the entire game.  Few actual punches were thrown before Hickman wrestled Proft to the ice and skated off imploring the fans (and his team) to get a little fired up.

Like clockwork, Delnov whipped in a wrister just 33 seconds later and Sanvido scored two and a half minutes later and the game had turned.

With this franchise it seems as though we are always saying "wait 'til next year" and sometimes it is foolish optimism for us to have looked towards next year. Fans, especially Tbirds fans, seem to feel like things are either "win a banner" or "that year sucked". I understand that sentiment to a certain extent because the Tbirds have very few banners and have enjoyed very little upper level success and I would consider upper level success to either be a Division title or Conference Finals appearance and beyond. The point is... I want to be very careful in my praise for what I saw last night. If you're looking for this team to win a WHL title this year I think you've set the expectations a little too high.

However... Based on what I have seen so far this season I can easily say this is the best Seattle team we've seen in several years. This team won't miss the playoffs. I feel pretty comfortable making that "prediction".  You have to go back to 2008-09 for the last time this team made the playoffs.  That team went 35-32-5 which was good for 75 points. The season before in 2007-08 the Tbirds went 42-23-7, good for 91 points.

I think this team is looking more like the 08-09 version but has a decent chance to put themselves closer to the 91 point mark.  Right now the team has the ability to roll 4 forward lines and have a pretty good chance at getting scoring from any of the 4 lines. My biggest concern continues to be the defense but so far they have been able to hold things together and I think guys like Wardley and Forsberg bring enough physicality to the defense to keep offenses from getting too comfortable.  Hauf and Green are still very raw and haven't learned to use their size to their advantage yet and that only comes from being better skaters.  I've said it a million times before... if you put Andre the Giant in skates... he isn't knocking me down because he doesn't know how to skate. It doesn't matter how big you are if you can't generate enough leverage to knock people on their ass (something Wardley has learned to do in SPADES in the last calendar year). If Hauf and Green manage to take a step forward before the year is over, this could be a very good defensive unit.

So... rejoice Tbirds fans. We should be seeing some more winning hockey going forward and that makes things very exciting for the rest of this season. Wait until next year is a tired and worn out mantra... but it is a mantra that "might" actually start becoming a reality if players can continue some of the momentum we are beginning to see.

Showare Ice Surface

Here is a weird update for you guys.

I just got done playing a game at ShoWare and I'd like to report that the ice surface is in really good shape. In previous years when I have played games at both Key Arena and ShoWare the ice surface was very soft. Soft ice means that skaters have to work harder because their skate steel sinks into the ice a little more than normal.  Softer ice also tends to lend itself to slightly slower game speed for the same reason.

The ice I skated on today was much closer to a "normal" surface and felt great. Whatever they did or whatever they are doing to make the ice surface more normal is definitely working. I'll be interested to see if the game speed appears just a tad bit faster tonight.

Random update... but I figure a few people might be interested in knowing this.

Announcement, Lockout Rant, Tbirds Hockey

Hey look... I have something to write about so why not have a Menage a Trois of posts on a Friday? We'll get three topics together all at the same time

First, I have a bit of a minor announcement to make. Recently, my good friend John Barr started a blog that provided updates on the possibility of a new downtown sports arena and subsequently the possibility of an NHL team coming to Seattle. John and I have decided to collaborate on this new project that I think most Seattle area hockey fans will have interest in - nhltoseattle.com You can (and should) also like our page on Facebook right here.

For now, John will still handle most, if not all of the posting over at the new website because he is well versed on the issues surrounding getting an NHL team to the Seattle area. John will continue with his relocation updates and I will eventually transition into the team recap/analysis writer in the event that we should be able to score an NHL team.  Do me a favor and give the website a look, John does an amazing job and I hope to contribute to that in the near future. This doesn't mean any changes for Let's Go Birds and we still don't have any clear indication on when or if Seattle will receive an NHL team.

Second. While we are on the subject... allow me to rant a little bit about the NHL Lockout (this is something I may post over at the new website as well).

I join with most hockey fans in being utterly and totally annoyed (possibly disgusted) at the idea of another lockout and a lost season. Billionaires fighting with Millionaires is the tag line often mentioned and it's true. It seems as though most fans believe that the owners are being unfair and the players are getting a raw deal in this recent round of negotiations. I would tend to agree with that. When the players were locked out in 2004 and eventually came to an agreement in 2005 after the cancellation of an entire season, it was widely perceived that the owners "won" and the players conceded a lot.  In light of this, the owners have now come back 7 years later, after record revenue growth, and demanded that salaries be rolled back further and that the players should make more concessions.

The players are getting shafted, plain and simple. Owners aren't being fair to ask for so much more after getting so much 7 years ago and enjoying the bounties that the past 7 years have provided.

However.  Answer me this.... Exactly what leverage do the players have?? The answer (imo) of course is none or at least very little.

The situation hinges on this - too many owners simply have no reason to run games.

James Mirtle of the Toronto Globe and Mail wrote an eloquent article back in July that illustrates perfectly the reason why many NHL teams aren't generating revenues large enough to cover expenses. If you lose money every time you open the doors to the arena to play a game... well... you aren't very eager to play games.

As Mirtle points out, the owners believe they'll have an easier time extracting 200-300 million out of the players before they can extract that out of the richest franchises in the form of revenue sharing.

So if most owners don't have an incentive to play games.... what leverage do the players have? They can be united all they want but most ownership groups aren't being hurt by shutting their doors.

If the players were smart... they would accept the salary roll-backs while insisting that the league institute better revenue sharing or other ways in which the bottom 70% of the franchises have a better chance to succeed and turn profits (or break even).

Unfortunately, until the players realize that they really don't have solid ground to stand on (beyond the moral ground) the lockout will likely continue.

Third.  Thank whatever God you believe in that we still have Junior Hockey! The Thunderbirds hit the ice tonight in Kamloops looking to continue their momentum after their stunning late game heroics up in Prince George last weekend.  I'm going to have the game on tonight but I may not be able to watch a ton of it. I'll try to post as many thoughts as I can.

The Riley Sheen for Jacob Doty trade sure is working out well. I suspected at the time that this trade would work out quite well for Seattle and so far things are looking pretty good. Sheen has 4 points in 4 games.

Also, Jarret Smith has been a revelation (at least on paper) so far as he has 3 assists with a +2 rating through 4 games.

I'll have some actual relevant thoughts after I see a game or two.

Unreliable

Yup. I'm officially unreliable. I've obviously written nothing this week after missing the first two games and now I'll be out of town and most likely unable to watch the next two games.

I'm officially unreliable.

That's the bad news.

The good news is... this won't last very long. I'll be back to my normal schedule here once my schedule settles down.

Don't give up on me yet people...

Update

A couple of update items for everyone today.

First, I have to acknowledge the fact that there has been a severe lack of content lately. I apologize for that. With the lack of a writing "team" there are times where I get pretty busy at the office and outside of the office and it generally takes away from my time to write for the blog. I realize that isn't a good excuse but it does help explain my lack of updates.

Second, It also just so happens that I had to be pulled out of town this weekend I'm going to miss opening weekend for the second year in a row. I suck, believe me, I agree.

Third, some actual updates. Yesterday it became clear on Twitter that Seattle had decided to release defensemen Brad Deagle and go with Luke Lockhart and Brendan Rouse up front. I think this is a mistake on the part of the team but probably not something that means a lot. Seattle currently has 7 defensemen on the roster (a number that is too small in my book) and a vast majority of those defensemen are untested and unproved at the WHL level. I think it's a gamble and a risk and it isn't a gamble I would have been willing to take. Brad Deagle was arguably your most consistent and solid defender last year and I don't think a marginal training camp and preseason should have changed that. Oh well. I don't get paid to make these decisions.

I would just hate to see a defensemen or two get hurt (you know, because these things tend to happen all the time) and have them suddenly be down a body. Dear Jesse Forsberg, please don't get hurt.. k thanks.

Happy opening weekend to everyone and I promise to get things more fired up when I get back the following week.

CHLPA and Seattle Ticket Revenue

The other day the fledgling CHLPA (and I'm tempted to use the word floundering) tweeted out some "Revenue" figures that they claim come directly from the CHL website.

First off... I can't seem to verify that fact anywhere and nobody else seems to be able to verify that either. So if the CHL is posting revenue figures on their website it appears that the mysterious tweeting CHLPA is the only one that can find them.

Second... I really don't know that I have a strong opinion on the CHLPA yet. The rest of this post isn't meant to be a slam on the CHLPA. I'm all for CHL players being treated well. For the most part, I think they already are treated pretty well. While some may call playing hockey in the WHL a "job"... I, most certainly, would not. When I played college baseball and I received a food stipend for road trips, I didn't think that what I was doing was "work". I looked at it like I was playing the game because I loved playing it and for the small (non-existent in my case) hope of being a professional one day.  I realize the NCAA considers the CHL "professional" but we all know that is a heaping pile of bullshit. So I'm all for the players being treated well but I can't help but feel like the CHLPA is a solution to a non-existent problem.  Couple that with the fact that this all seems like a really weird and strange April Fools joke and I find it hard to believe this is going to gain any traction. We don't even know "who" this CHLPA is. We have Georges Laraque acting as the "Executive Director" and an anonymous twitter account.  Quick addition to that thought... does anyone else feel like the CHLPA twitter will just one day say "nevermind, just kidding... just wanted to see everyone get worked up about nothing"??

Let's also throw out the fact that there are several franchises that are struggling to make financials work and unions typically add benefits but they also add costs. My belief is that the Thunderbirds are doing much better in ShoWare than they were in KeyArena but it is quite possible that any formal formation of the CHLPA could put one or more franchises in danger of closing up their doors. That is PURE speculation on my part but that is the sense that I get.

Having said all of that.... Let's actually break down the numbers because I'm a nerd and I love numbers.

Sunday, September 2nd the CHLPA Twitter (@theCHLPA) stated that the Tbirds "estimated" ticket sales were 141,086 good for revenue of $4,853,367. The last semi-reliable attendance figure we have is from 2009-10 where Seattle drew 138,724 but I know for a fact that attendance has gone up since that year. That works out to average crowd of 3853 and I think it is a lot closer to 4000. 4000 by 36 games is 144,000. So let's assume that the CHLPA numbers are correct. What we shouldn't assume is that each one of those tickets are paid for. Every team gives away some tickets... let's say roughly 5%. That would reduce the paid tickets number down to $134,031. Take that number and divide by $4,853,367 and you get an average ticket price of $36.21.

Now... Let's see if we can back into the average ticket price at the arena.  Let's ignore the fact that season ticket holders get a discount on the per ticket price because that would completely blow the number out of the water. So let's just deal with retail price.  $40 a pop for club seats and I'd say there must be about 500 club seats. That's $20,000. 200 glass seats? That's a guess but I think it's close. 200 by $30 is another $6000. I'm guessing about 500 of the Family tickets at $16 each, $8000 and that leaves 4925 tickets at $24 which is $118,200. Put it all together and it would add up to $152,200 for each home game (before suites).

Your head is spinning... I know... stay with me....

That means that if you sell out the entire place (which we all know doesn't happen) that average ticket price works out to $24.84 and once again this is assuming that every ticket is actually a "paid" ticket.

Now let's work in suite tickets (as was pointed out on my twitter). Let's say roughly 20 suites at 14 seats per suite and $50 per ticket and average suite sales are probably 60%. That adds about $8400 to the total. Which gives us roughly a rounded total of $160,000 in revenue per game. Average ticket price? $26.22... still not even close to the $34.40 that the CHLPA wants you to believe.

Last point... this all assumes that tickets are all sold on a retail basis and we all know that isn't true. I pay $558 per season ticket and that makes my average ticket price $15.50. Let's assume the Tbirds have 1500 season ticket holders (I don't actually know the number) that means that the $26.22 average ticket price that we calculated not only can't be correct but also cannot be any higher than that because somewhere around 1500 people are actually buying tickets at a discounted per game rate.

Which means...

The numbers the CHLPA tweeted out... are complete garbage. Either that or there are some major gaps in the facts or their "sources".

"Educated" guess... I'd say revenue for the Tbirds was closer to $20 per ticket with actual paid attendance being closer to 140 to 145k which would put revenue somewhere between $2.8 and $2.9 million.

Preseason Roster, Notes

The Thunderbirds have posted their preseason roster. A few things to note.

• No Barzal. All along I have said that I don't think we have too much to worry about when it comes to Barzal signing on with the team and I will still maintain that to be the case. However, I would say I'm a little more nervous than I was yesterday. No Barzal in this preseason is a strong indication that he still hasn't signed. I'm not worried yet... but on a scale of 1-10 with 1 being "I'm not worried, leave me alone" and 10 being "Crap, here come another 100 'fire Russ' comments" my stress level just went from about a 3 to a 4.  If that makes sense...
• Wray, Bell, Low, Holub and Folk are the forward guys listed who we may or may not have expected. Kolesar is still around but he's 15 and already signed, so that is cool but he can't make the team. 18 forwards if you count Kolesar and Delnov (who isn't listed). If you subtract either Lockhart or Rouse and Kolesar you wind up with 16 forwards. My best guess is that leaves maybe 1 or 2 cuts to make but I wouldn't be shocked to see them carry an extra guy until they are sure that Delnov will arrive.
• On defense. Wolf sticks around despite having a so-so camp. He was already signed though so not much of a shock there. Jerret Smith, who showed some very interesting offensive potential in camp, is still around. Only 8 defensemen are listed which would indicate to me that Deagle is definitely staying and they may not make another cut on defense. Maybe 1 cut if they wanted to send someone home to get more playing time. No Douglas as well... he might have been a slight surprise to some.
• In net... a mess.  5 goalies are still listed and I think it is anyone's guess as to who has the lead in the backup goalie race. I think Cotton is being given a chance to either play himself on the roster or play himself off the roster. His spot to win or lose. If he falters... I'm guessing Myles or Mumaugh and if I had to place a bet... I'm going with Mumaugh.

Lund Traded

Chance Lund has been traded to the Swift Current Broncos in exchange for a 6th round Bantam Draft pick.

This helps clear the 20 year old situation but won't quite solve it.

This doesn't come as much of a shock to me. A 6th round pick isn't terrible value for a 20 year old player and especially one who hasn't really shown a lot in his previous seasons.  Early in the 2011-12 season Lund looked like he was ready to take things to the next level but he slowed as the season wore on and was rarely a factor late in the season.

Seattle will now presumably choose two players from the Brad Deagle, Luke Lockhart and Brendan Rouse group.