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Hockey Challenge 2014

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Trip ends on a loss... and a little math

I wasn't there, I didn't see it, I didn't even hear it... I had physical therapy and a run tonight.

Tbirds lose 3-2 tonight in Swift Current ending the Eastern Swing with 5 points in 6 games and ending the whole trip with 7 points in 7 games.

The way the team played on the trip they probably deserved better... but it was still a good trip. Not a great trip, but a good trip, which isn't a great trip but isn't a bad trip.

The Birds have now played 5 games at home and 20 on the road. Think about that people... anyone who wants to be a hater needs to look at that balance (or imbalance).

That means of course... the rest of the way the Tbirds have 31 home games and 16 road games. There is no way they can play .800 at home the rest of the season but let's say they play .650 or .700 and make some projections.

If they play .650 at home (slightly worse) and .400 on the road (slightly better) they finish with 40 more home points and roughly 13 more road points for 53 total added to their current 21 and you get 74. Last year... 74 points got you 7th in the conference.

If they play .700 at home (still slightly worse) and .400 on the road (again slightly better) they finish with 44 points (rounded up) and 13 road points for 57 plus 21 and you get 77 which is still around 6th or 7th.

You begin to see why digging yourself a hole at the start of the season becomes problematic because the Tbirds could play pretty solid hockey the rest of the way and still only finish 6th or 7th in the West.

If we take the 91 points the Tbirds had last year as a rough benchmark for finishing 4th in the conference... let's see what it might take in order to get there.

First off... with a majority of the rest of the games at home, their play at home becomes more important... obviously.

In order to finish around 91 points they will probably need to play .500 on the road the rest of the way, which doesn't seem impossible given the play of late and the number of road games that are relatively close to home but offset by the fact that they still play a number of games in Everett, Spokane and Tri not to mention the suddenly feisty Winterhawks..... but let's say .500 meaning they get 16 points in the 16 games left on the road.

16 plus 21 is 37 points... 91 minus 37 is 54. So 54 is the number of points they would need to get at home. 54 points at home the rest of the way is .870.... which again illustrates why digging yourself a hole at the start of the season makes it tough (but not impossible)to finish around the 90 point mark).

Ok so that seems a bit unrealistic... so let's try it with a slightly better road record. If they play .550 on the road the rest of the way is 18 points. I'll save you the verbal calculations and tell you that it means they would need to play .839 the rest of the way at home to make it.

What is my point to all of this?

The Tbirds need to play like the Vancouver Giants at home in order to get to just 91 points. I like the way the team is playing but I think its impossible to expect them to play at that clip the rest of the way. My prediction... I will go with 83 points and 5th in the conference.


Mr Tell13 said...

I think your estimates are a bit conservative. Granted, its true that some points they lost in the beginning of the season are going to be missed in the final standings. But if they have confidence quickly at home (especially the new home in Kent), it surely will transfert on their play on the road. So I think your estimate is conservative. I would think that if they manage .700 at home they should be able to play .500 on the road.

Thunnex said...

I agree with you... but here is the thing and maybe I complicated things too much with how I described it. If they go...

.700 at home is 43 points
.500 on road is 16 points

Add to 21 and you get 80...

So actually I'm giving them a few better than that hoping they will pick up 3 more points along the way.

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