Noebels Traded

Seattle does wind up making a move and it is a bit of a big one.  The Thunderbirds have traded Marcel Noebels to the Portland Winterhawks in exchange for Seth Swenson and two 1st round Bantam selections. The 1st round picks are in 2012 and 2013.

Snap reaction. This is a GREAT trade for Seattle. To get this type of return for Noebels is a great deal for the Tbirds. Hopefully Swenson will come up and fit right in with the rest of the group.

Oh and by the way... we'll see Marcel and the Winterhawks on Saturday.

Quiet Day for Seattle

No trades so far for the Thunderbirds. We may wind up seeing a very quiet trade deadline.

One point of clarification.

Let's suppose that nothing happens here (which is looks like is very possible). If Seattle winds up doing absolutely nothing and making no trades at the deadline I will be disappointed. However, let's be just a little bit sane here by saying that nothing happening doesn't mean that Russ Farwell wasn't "trying" or didn't "care" or that he is completely happy with the current roster.

Wanting to make a deal happen and speculating about what you would like to happen is a long ways away from actually making a deal happen.

Example:

If I were a GM, I would trade Burke Gallimore and Marcel Noebels. Here is how that conversation might actually be happening though.

Secretary: Mr. Farwell, you have Alan Miller on line 2.

Farwell: Alan, how are you? We heard you might be looking to upgrade your 20 year old situation. I'll give you Gallimore and I only want a 3rd rounder for him.
Millar: Russ... thanks but I got James Henry for a 2nd and a 3rd. I think we're set.
Farwell: How about Noebels or Verdino or Machacek?
Millar: Sorry Russ I think my phone is losing reception... can't hear you... I'll have to call you back....

Other teams have to also want what we have and it's possible they just don't want the players we have.

Trade Deadline - Seattle Edition

The trade deadline is roughly 24 hours away and this one could be very interesting for the future of the Seattle Thunderbirds. Whether we see General Manager Russ Farwell trade a number of players or we see him make no trades, this deadline will have huge impact on how this team looks in the next couple of seasons. My opinion? I think this team needs some drastic changes and here's why:

First, I believe Farwell needs to blow this team up. Last summer, Farwell made the difficult decision to let Rob Sumner go and in the process effectively started a "change" in the Seattle Thunderbirds organization. New coach, new approach, new regime... the only problem is of course we still had the same group of players. I think the verdict is still out on whether Konowalchuk is a great coach or not but, in essence, I don't think that even matters here. Coach K might be a fantastic coach and we just don't know it because he doesn't have the right players yet. Farwell changed the leadership at the coaching position and now it is time to follow through with that change and get rid of the players that don't want to be here, are unwilling to work hard, or aren't responding to Coach K.

Second, take a quick glance at the WHL Standings: Losers of 4 straight games, the Tbirds are still solidly in the playoff race with 33 points in 28 games, good for a point percentage of .434. 8th place Victoria is in the middle of a 9 game losing streak (3 points) and 9th place Prince George is in the middle of their own 4 game losing streak while Everett has lost 3 straight following their win over Seattle last week. All three teams are considerably behind Seattle in point percentage at .369, .350 and .275 respectively. Seattle doesn't need to play lights out the rest of the way simply to qualify for the playoffs (something the organization desperately wants to happen). If Seattle were to trade away Calvin Pickard and others, they should be able to hang on to a playoff spot. If we assume that Victoria and Prince George play better than their current record and finish the season with a winning percentage of .403 (58 points), Seattle only needs 26 points out of 68 possible remaining points to make the playoffs. That is a .382 point percentage the rest of the way. Therefore, I believe Seattle can trade away their most valuable pieces and still make the playoffs.

This is what I think "should" happen but that isn't necessarily what I think "will" happen. So let's break this down into two different parts. Who I think should get traded and who I think will get traded. 

Who "should” get traded: 

Calvin Pickard: Sigh. This one hurts. A lot. Calvin has been a warrior for this organization and has suffered through several crappy seasons while he continued to post solid numbers and has flat out stolen a couple of games a season for the Tbirds. Calvin really must be traded. He is the most valuable asset Seattle currently has and getting back a 1st round bantam selection and/or a couple of 16 or 17 year old players would help load up the Tbirds in future seasons. Is that guaranteed to work? No. But part of the reason Seattle has suffered through the past three seasons was their refusal to trade players like Thomas Hickey and Prab Rai when they had the chance to do so. Making things just a tad bit easier is the excellent play of Daniel Cotton. Cotton is most certainly not a "replacement" for Calvin Pickard but he has played well enough to prove that he can handle the job for the rest of this season and become your starting goaltender as an 18 year old next season. I don't want this trade to happen... but it simply has to happen. If Farwell decides to keep Pickard, the most likely scenario is a first round playoff exit to either the Portland Winterhawks or the Kamloops Blazers.... and now what? You'll lose Pickard to the AHL next year and the gain was 2 (maybe 3) home playoff games. The upside to keeping Pickard would be hoping he can steal you a playoff series win (or two?) and that just isn't likely with the way this current team is constructed. 

Marcel Noebels: Ah yes, the curious case of Marcel Noebels. The German, in his second season with the Tbirds is having a season vastly different from his freshman season that saw him post 28 goals and 26 assists in 66 games for the Birds. Last season, he played hard, played humble and posted a -11 on a team that features forwards with -26, -14, -19, -18, -17... etc. etc. You get the point. This season has been completely different. After being drafted in the 4th round by the Philadelphia Flyers, Noebels made it clear he would have preferred to play his 19 year old season back in Germany but was told by the Flyers to report to Seattle. Noebels has often tried to handle the puck through multiple defenders and has held onto the puck far longer than he should seemingly looking to score goals more than making the right play. He also has not played responsibly from a defensive point of view, and it has resulted in a team worst -22. He is still super talented and has played on both the PP and the PK. A team looking to upgrade their Import might be interested in giving Noebels the change of scenery he may need to get his season turned around. 

Burke Gallimore: Gallimore has a wicked shot. Leading the team in goals with 17 and overall scoring with 27 points in 38 games, Gallimore also has a 2nd worst -19. Gallimore has never been the fastest player on the ice and his inability (or desire) to back-check is the cause of the plus/minus. He is, however, a pretty useful player on the PP with a hard and accurate release. A contending team that needs a boost on the Power Play but can hide him on the 3rd line could probably find Gallimore useful. Moose Jaw? [I didn't get this up fast enough as Moose Jaw just traded for 20 year old forward Cam Braes.]

Colin Jacobs: He won't get traded but we'll deal with that in the next section.  I would trade Jacobs because he still has some value and it just isn't really working out to the level that I would have wanted it to work out.  Jacobs has a lethal shot but still hasn't figured out that he is more of a power forward than a puck handling wizard. Jacobs is an 18 year old who will still be playing in the league next season and that could bring back some decent value from another team. Again, this won't happen but that is what I would do.

Branden Troock: Troock has suffered too many injuries and plays like a younger clone of Noebels. His value certainly isn't at his peak but I would personally cut my losses here and see what I could get back for him. This is a trade I wouldn't automatically make and it would depend on the return. I don't like the way he is playing but he is only 17 and has time to change and improve.

Mitch Elliot: Let's face it, it just isn't working for him here in Seattle.  Do you want to hang onto Elliot for another season hoping he figures things out the way Chance Lund has? (which btw... I don't have any problem with Chance Lund and how he has progressed but let's not act like Lund has suddenly become a star player) Elliot seems like a nice kid but he looks completely lost on the ice this season. He is another player I feel might benefit from a change of scenery.

Now for who likely "will" get traded:

Mitch Elliot: (Strong Chance) I think Mitch probably will get moved to give him that change of scenery and give him a chance to improve. The easiest place to send him would be back to Prince George and I believe the Tbirds need another defender to get Hauf off of the ice as much as possible down the stretch (he only needs to play in 11 more games) and that would immediately improve your defense by a little bit.

Connor Sanvido: (Maybe) If someone had interest in Sanvido I could see him getting moved here at the deadline. Sanvido has barely been in the lineup much this season and another team might be willing to give him a shot.

Braeden Laroque: (Not Likely) I doubt Laroque gets moved unless Seattle gets another defender or two back in other trades. Laroque has struggled at times but I don't really feel like the Tbirds can afford to trade any defenders at the moment.

Kyle Verdino/Cason Machacek: (Not Likely) I don't think either of these guys are on the move and I don't think either would net very much return but they have both had limited success this season for a variety of reasons.

I would love to see Farwell blow this team up and make some changes but, I honestly don't see it happening. I think the organization is desperate to get into the playoffs and they feel a deep sense of loyalty to ensure that Calvin Pickard gets into the playoff with the Seattle Thunderbirds and not with another team and I think the safest (maybe not best) way to ensure that happens is to keep your veteran players and put things in the hands of Steve Konowalchuk to keep trying to change the mentality and the way some of these players are playing.

Game 38 Game Thread

Check out the live chat we did yesterday for the televised game below. Good times had by all... I think we had 18 people in there at the height. I will be absent from the game tonight. So I want to throw this thread up for people to comment after the game. The Thunderbirds enter the game on a 3 game slide but Spokane is a beatable team and returning home might be a tonic to get the team going again.

Seattle at Tri-City live on Root Sports

First Live Chat of the year!

Game 36 Recap

I should have known better. I really should have known better than to press my luck and attempt to witness two straight wins in Everett.  A dreadful performance turned in by the Thunderbirds last night in front of “3,743” (absolutely no way, I estimate no more than 2,500) fans in attendance at the EEC. Everett has always been rumored to over-report their attendance. I cannot imagine how Russ Farwell could have watched that game last night without walking away feeling like a handful of players should be cast away to other teams around the league, if he could get any kind of value back in return.  Where-o-where should we start on this one…

• How about the Power Play? Horrible. Seattle was 0 for 5 on the Power Play which included a 5 minute PP to start the 3rd period.  Not only were they barely able to put 1 shot on goal during the first PP, but they also allowed Josh Winquist to score a shorthanded goal. I know that Colin Jacobs is a skilled forward, but I don't understand the strategy behind Jacobs anchoring a point on the PP. How long before people realize that Jacobs isn't a "dangler", rather he's a power forward with a good shot and hands who should be glued to the front of the net.  Could someone please politely ask Ryan Gibbons to take a short sabbatical from his officiating to teach Jacobs how to park in front of the net? I don’t mean this to be a slam on Jacobs either, he is a very respectable player with quality skills, but I just don't think they are being utilized properly.  2nd question: Why is Luke Lockhart (the smallest player outside of Connor Sanvido) our player front of the net player on the Power Play? I have plenty of issues with Marcel Noebels, but I'd rather see him on the point with Lockhart and Gallimore on the wings with Jacobs parked in front. Then again... what do I know?  I do know with absolute certainty that the Power Play was dreadful last night and Seattle had plenty of trouble just getting set up in the zone much less creating scoring opportunities.  They had one PP in the 2nd period that was relatively decent and had a couple of scoring chances, but once it was clear that they couldn't convert on those opportunities, things seemed to completely fall apart.
• The two goals last night by Troock and Noebels were both scored on fine individual efforts. Unfortunately, that also describes the current problem with this team and both players.  Both guys are trying to do way too much (again) and it only results in bad hockey and poor results.  Trying something 10 times to have it work once each game is not a confirmation that you are doing things correctly. Move. The. Puck. Troock also added two hooking penalties and Noebels had a goaltender interference call.
• Seattle just seemed lifeless last night. Especially after they failed to convert that 2nd period goal. Frustration appeared to set in and players had no jump or desire to succeed.  I know it is a long season but these kids hadn't played since Saturday, so energy should not be a factor. There is no excuse for the type of effort we got from most of the lineup.
• I don't want to lump everyone into the same category. The line of Justin Hickman, Tyler Alos and Chance Lund is, in my mind, the most effective line on the team. That line doesn't score a lot of goals but I would take 4 lines just like them and take my chances. I also thought Brad Deagle played a generally solid game. He was out for both Seattle goals and finished +2.
• Shea Theodore and Jared Hauf look tired to me.  I refuse to be overly critical of the play of 16 year old players, however both players have struggled lately. There is/was solid reasoning behind each of them getting a game off from time to time.  It is very difficult for 16 year old players to come in and play 60-70 games in their first year in the league.
• I'm beginning to seriously question the motivations of a handful of players on this team.  Too many players look like they have little to no desire to play good quality Major Junior Hockey.  I've never understood how this happens and quite frankly I don't really care. Either you want to play or you don't and if you don't want to play, let's get you a change of scenery and get some players in here who want to work hard and want to win.

Seattle gets a day off to contemplate their gameplay before hitting the road to face Tri-City, the top team in the CHL on regional television. Yikes.  Also, a reminder that I will be live chatting tomorrow night during the game, so pull up a computer next to your television and we can gather to chat about a (hopefully) better performance from our Tbirds.

A Fan Plea

I will have my game recap up later this afternoon. In the meantime, I have a special guest "blog" from fan Jon Whiting. I'm not saying that I either agree or disagree with this (my thoughts will be in my recap) but I thought it was a nice representation of one fan's perspective on the team right now as we approach the trade deadline.

*************************************

Dear Russ, I would like to remind you of the 1995-96 season trade deadline.

In case you have forgotten, that was your first year back in Seattle after a wonderful time in Philadelphia.

You had a very average team that season.

At the trading deadline, you dismantled the team, blew it up, shipped out any major assets you had.

You traded in division, in conference, it didn't matter.  Any team that wanted a player, you took the best offer.

If I recall correctly, the team was about to get on the bus for a road trip.  As the players were getting on the bus, a bunch were told they were not getting on.  The bus left with a total of 13 skaters for that nights road game (in Kelowna if I really remember).

You sent the likes of Jan Hrdina to Spokane, Blair Manning to Medicine Hat, Tyler Perry to Swift Current, Kevin Popp to Portland.  There might even have been a couple others that I don't recall.  Those were the heart and soul players of the team.  The captain, the tough guy, the fan favorite.

Why did you do this?  To make your team better.  To get the players you thought would fit better.

What happened?  Well, your team still made the playoffs.  The 1996-97 team finished second to a top Portland team and went on to the WHL final.  The 1997-98, if Patrick Marleau is returned by San Jose as an 18, had a great chance of returning to the finals.

So how does this look down memory lane relate to today.

Coach K said it best in last night’s post game notes.

"As you learn more and more about players and their character you analyze that and you don't want the guys (that don't play hard every night) on your team. You want guys that are going to give you everything they have."

You as a GM know who they are.  Coach K, R, And M all know.  We as fans all know who these players are.  It doesn't take a mathematician to find a complex formula to figure out who they are.  Trade them, move them, release them, whatever highly technical term people like to use these days.

Jon

Seattle in Everett Tonight

I'm headed back up to Everett tonight looking for a personal record 2 game Everett road game winning streak. Hopefully the trade rumors circulating recently about Calvin Pickard and Luke Lockhart won't actually affect their play or anyone else on the team. I personally would be very surprised to see either Pickard or Lockhart traded. Seattle is looking like a decent bet to finish 6th in the conference and I have a feeling that GM Russ Farwell is going to want to keep Pickard around for a playoff attempt after several years of team struggle. (Btw, he did not tell me that specifically... I'm just speculating)

I'd actually be more shocked to see Lockhart traded as he is one of the hardest working players and one of the most responsible defensive forwards that the Tbirds have on the roster.  Getting a 17 year old Forward, Defensemen, Goaltender and a 1st round Bantam pick would be a pretty good haul for the Tbirds... but I just don't really envision that happening.

Don't forget that the Tbirds are also playing the Tri-City Americans on Root Sports on Friday night.

I've been having some laptop issues at home lately but if I can get those resolved, I'm going to try to run the first live chat of the season.  So come one, come all... and we'll chat about the game as it happens on Friday night.

Pickard Traded?

UPDATE: Just exchanged notes with General Manager Russ Farwell who can confirm that there is absolutely no truth to the rumor on this deal.

Hope everyone is having a Happy New Year. 2012 has greeted us with some serious rumors that began circulating late last night and into this morning that Seattle has traded Calvin Pickard to the Brandon Wheatkings in exchange for 17 year old players Tyrel Seaman, Dylan Kuczek, Curtis Honey (Connor's twin brother) and a 1st round bantam pick in the upcoming draft.

Seattle would also receive a 3rd round pick and send a 2nd round pick back to Brandon.

There is also a rumor that Luke Lockhart has been traded to Victoria for an unknown package.

If these trades actually become official I will have some thoughts on them. For now, we will wait to hear the details.

These rumors are coming from three Twitter accounts.... speculate as you will.

http://twitter.com/#!/rossmaclean
http://twitter.com/#!/kellyfriesen
http://twitter.com/#!/JMcCarthyFC

Game 33 Recap

I have very little time to write today so let's bang this out.

• Much better effort from the Thunderbirds in Everett last night despite the fact that the outcome wound up being exactly the same. The passing was crisper and Seattle generated more scoring chances than they did on Tuesday night.
• What a night for Luke Lockhart.  He has struggled all season in the point total department despite playing his usual gritty, defensive-minded, and hustling style of hockey. His shorthanded marker towards the end of the first period gave Seattle the lead and was one of the best individual performances of the season.  He followed that up with a rebound put-back goal in the 2nd period and finished the night with the only goal of the shootout to give the Tbirds the win.  It was a great night for Lockhart, and I just hope he has a few more of those before the end of the season.
• Calvin Pickard was mostly solid in net again, but made a rare and costly mistake in the 3rd period that allowed Everett to tie the game with 5 minutes remaining.  I was sitting at the opposite end of the ice, so I still can't tell exactly what happened, but it appeared as though Pickard gloved the shot from Ryan Harrison, and then dropped it in his own net. A rare mistake for Pickard and he followed it up by stopping JT Barnett, Ryan Harrison and Kohl Bauml in the shootout.
• Pickard is also closing in on some WHL history.  Finishing the night with 12,095 minutes played in his WHL career has placed him 8th on the career list. Pickard can jump past Evan Lindsay and Steve Passmore and into 6th place if he starts Friday night against Moose Jaw and plays more than 54 minutes.  At that point, he'll have his eyes set squarely on Danny Lorenz for the franchise record of 12,634 minutes played and also 3rd all-time in WHL history.  Kyle Moir and Kurtis Mucha remain after that and he needs 1,614 minutes played before the end of the season to pass Mucha.  If he averages 59 minutes played per game he would need 28 games played in Seattle's remaining 39 games to have the record.  That's a pretty safe bet. If you sprinkle in roughly 6 starts for Daniel Cotton, Pickard would break the WHL record against the Silvertips at home on March 11th.
• Cason Machacek, sniper.
• Playoff Watch 2012: It's been a while.  Seattle sits in 7th place by points and 6th place by winning percentage. Last season, Everett was the 8th seed with 67 points and it may not even take that many to get into the playoffs this season. Conservatively, let's say 67 is the magic number... the Tbirds need 36 more points in their final 39 games to be playing meaningful hockey past the 2nd weekend of March.  Vancouver currently sits in 3rd place in the Conference. I would love to see Seattle get the 6 seed and face the Giants in the first round. I know, I know... we're getting a little ahead of ourselves.

Players and fans will get one day of rest to regroup as the Tbirds will host the Moose Jaw Warriors.  The Warriors might be a tired bunch as they played at home LAST NIGHT before hitting the road to get to Kent before Friday's game.  Google Maps says it’s about 19 hours by car.  Yikes.