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3.21.2009

Seattle steals home ice advantage from Spokane

Tbirds pick up an enormous win tonight in Spokane... holding off the Chiefs in the final moments and holding on for a 2-1 victory.

Seattle got on the board in the 2nd period on a Power Play goal by Thomas Hickey who put a shot on Chief goaltender Dustin Tokarski from the left point where he made the save but saw the puck bounce off of his defender and into his own net.

Tbirds then added to the lead as Sena Acolatse went hard to the net, around the Spokane defender and banged home a rebound of a Lockhart shot from the right circle that gave Seattle the 2-0 lead.

Drayson Bowman picked up his 3rd of the playoffs on a weird play that the camera missed... I guess it was an errand pass by Greg Scott that Bowman picked up and went top shelf over the glove hand of Calvin Pickard to cut the lead in half.

Seattle dug down deep and held off the Chiefs in the closing moments to secure the 2-1 win and even the series at 1-1.

I cannot emphasize enough how great Pickard was again tonight for the Tbirds.... finishing the game with 33 saves on 34 shots and earning the 1st star of the game in the process. The future is amazingly bright for young Pickard... but it appears that perhaps the future is already here.

Seattle hops on the bus for the happy ride back to Kent knowing that they only need to win their 3 home games to take the series away from the 4th seeded Chiefs.

Game 3... is Tuesday night at the ShoWare Center... followed by Game 4 on Wednesday night.

3.20.2009

Heartbreaking loss...

Tbirds lose an absolute heartbreaker tonight... 2-1 to the Chiefs in Spokane.

I thought they played well... I thought Spokane played well... I thought Calvin Pickard was exceptional to keep the Tbirds in the game and in the end, the play of Drayson Bowman and his two goals were the difference for Spokane.

I had a feeling that shutting down Bowman was the key to the series and so far I am unfortunately 1 for 1.

Can the Tbirds respond with a big win tomorrow... the first 20 minutes of the game on Saturday might be the different in the entire series and the entire season.

3.19.2009

Seattle Spokane Series Preview

Let's kick this thing off with the head to head stats courtesy of Alan Caldwell over at Small Thoughts at Large.

Spokane won the season series 5-3-0-1 over the Tbirds and outscored them 24-17 in the series. Most games were close with two 4 goal wins by the Chiefs pushing the final goal margin.

Top performers for Spokane in the series:

Drayson Bowman: 8 games, 9 goals, 1 assist
Levko Koper: 9 games, 1 goal, 7 assists

Dustin Tokarski: 6 games, 3 wins, 2 losses, 1 shootout loss, 2.14 GAA and 92.1% Save Percentage
Top Performers for Seattle in the series:

Jim O'Brien: 8 games, 3 goals, 4 assists
Jeremy Boyer: 9 games, 3 goals, 4 assists
Greg Scott: 7 games, 1 goal, 4 assists

Calvin Pickard: 4 games, 2 wins, 2 losses, 2.76 GAA, 90.9% Save Percentage
Jacob DeSerres is assumed out... so I'm leaving out his stats.

Trends:

When Seattle scores first... they are 3-1
When Spokane scores first... they are 4-1

Shots do not appear to matter...

When outshooting Spokane... Seattle is 1-1
When being outshot they are 3-4

Thomas Hickey is -3 in 3 losses... Hickey is +2 in 2 wins. He missed 4 of the 9 games the teams played.

Combined points for Greg Scott, Prab Rai and Jim O'Brien:

5 in 5 losses
9 in 4 wins

Points for Drayson Bowman of Spokane:

8 points in 4 wins
2 points in 4 losses

Comments:

The path to victory is going to be a difficult one for Seattle but not impossible. Spokane is banged up and nobody knows how they will react to the recent food poisoning suffered by 11 of the Chief players. Seattle is also banged up, but it appears they will have the services of everyone except DeSerres and Steve Chaffin. In addition, Colin Jacobs has been brought in for the series and could see playing time right away.... He could help add to the overall depth of the lines and any scoring he did would be a major boost.

Seattle has been horrible on the road all season long... but not terrible on the road against Spokane going 2-2 on the road while going 2-3 at home between Key Arena and the ShoWare center. The Tbirds will have to steal a game on the road in order to win the series and if they could win either Game 1 or Game 2 it would go a long way towards winning the series.

Keys to the series:

1) Protect Home Ice. I say this is #1 because I already think it will be a tall order for Seattle to win in Spokane, but if they lose a single game at home they will need two wins in Spokane to win the series. A nearly impossible feat for a team that has played so poorly on the road.

2) Contain Drayson Bowman. It is pretty clear that when he gets his points the Chiefs have won and when he has not typically the Tbirds have won. Keeping Bowman in check the Tbirds will force Spokane's other players to come through with some scoring to win the series.

3) Protect the front of the net. This speaks indirectly to the depth (or lack thereof) of the lines that Seattle has. As good as Pickard is... he is still 16 and has never been in a situation like this before. The Tbirds must be able to control, corral and hammer away rebounds around the net. Pickard should be able to handle almost every initial shot... but if the Tbirds give the Chiefs second and third chances it will spell trouble.

4) Checking. Can Seattle play the physical style that helped them to many victories in the new ShoWare Center. Most players on this team aren't too eager to hit people... if the one's that do... the guys like Cloud, Leblanc, Lockhart, Acolatse, Hickey and Warg can get their feet moving and execute some legal bone crushing hits and set the tone early and often they might be able to capitalize on their home ice and sneak through a win in Spokane.

Prediction:

This team has played very inconsistently all season... so let me go with a "head" prediction and a "heart" prediction.

Those saying that Seattle can win in 7 games are really not paying attention. Seattle hasn't played well on the road nearly all season and expecting to win a Game 7 in front of 10,000 in Spokane would be an unreal accomplishment... Thus... if Seattle is going to win this series I think it has to be at home in Game 6.

Predicting with my head... Seattle just doesn't play with enough consistent effort on the road to steal a game in Spokane and the Chiefs have enough talent, defense and goaltending to steal a close on at the ShoWare Center. Spokane wins games 1 and 2 at home, steals Game 4 and finished the Tbirds off in Game 5 at home.

Predicting with my heart... Seattle steals Game 1, gets hammered in Game 2, holds serve at home in Games 3 and 4 before losing in Spokane in Game 5 and winning in Overtime in Game 6.

Will this team surprise me? or do they discover that it isn't so easy to just turn the switch on 100% when it comes playoff time. Let's hope I am completely wrong....

Western Conference Predictions

I'm not going to pretend that I know enough about the East to make an educated guess. I just don't think I see those teams enough to know and clearly Calgary has to be considered the favorite.

Without further ado... here are my Western Conference predictions.

#1 Vancouver vs. #8 Prince George

I think almost everyone around has the Giants winning in 4 games and I am a little surprised by that actually. Making the trek up to PG is never an easy trip. Combine that with the fact that PG is actually a pretty decent home team and Vancouver seems to have lost a little bit of their mojo lately and I think PG pulls a huge upset in 6 games............ ok just kidding.... just making sure you are awake. PG is pesky but the Giants are just too good and talented and better coaches. Giants in 5

#2 Tri-City vs. #7 Everett

All bias aside... The Americans are much better than the Silvertips and dominated the season series. I think Everett takes a game in front of their home crowd, but that's it for them. The Ams have too much fire power with or without Chet Pickard. Americans in 5.

#3 Kelowna vs. #6 Kamloops

This is the only series I see being a sweep. Kelowna won every game against the Blazers this season and totally dominated nearly every game scoring at will. Leclerc is pretty good but it hasn't seemed to matter in the regular season and I don't see it mattering here. When Kamloops really needed points to avoid facing the Rockets in the first round they were dominated in both games when it really matter. This indicated to me that mentally the Blazers are whipped on Kelowna. Rockets in 4

#4 Seattle vs. #5 Spokane

You'll have to check back later tonight for my series preview to get my prediction for our Birds.

3.17.2009

Playoff Lines and Rotation

The first of my articles this week deals with the lines and rotation for the playoffs. We're going to have to assume that everyone is healthy... even though we don't know that for sure. The only things we know for sure is that DeSerres is not going to be ready to go and Chaffin is out for the season.

Line 1
Rai - Boyer - Scott

This line has been working very well together and it allows O'Brien to slip down to the 2nd line and give you some real strength and depth on that line.

Line 2

Parker - Nielsen - O'Brien

I love this line... this line has a center who can win faceoffs, a couple of scorers, can backcheck and an overall plus/minus that is still on the plus side thanks to O'Brien

Line 3

Leblanc - Cloud - Richard

Once we get down here it gets a little tougher. This could be a very nice energy/defensive line. Richard excels as a penalty killer and keeping him on the 3rd line keeps him freed up to do that job. This line can hit a little, fight a little, and would excel at chipping the puck to the corner to win battles down low.

Line 4

Acolatse - (Wells/Lockhart/Silvester)

Gets a little tougher down here too. Having Acolatse down on line 4 probably limits his minutes a little bit, but it also frees him up to get those additional minutes on the 1st or 2nd power play unit, which is a position where he can excel. The other two spots are a little tougher. Lockhart has shown great energy at times and is the only guy on this team who consistently is willing to hit people... but he also has appeared to wear down as the season has gone along and he may not have much left in the tank. Silvester and Wells have both shown flashes at times and both have shown nearly nothing at other times. I think you rotate these two spots between these three kids with each taking a turn getting the healthy scratch.

Lund is a scratch...

Defense

Defense is fairly easy...

Hickey - Haber

Haber hasn't looked great lately but when paired with Hickey he does just fine (most are this way). Pairing Hickey with Haber allows for...

Warg - Schappert

This pairing is a natural second pairing with Warg making incredible strides over the course of the season and Schappert being the teams most improved player.

With Chaffin out...

Fleming - Dillon

This becomes your 3rd pairing and really shouldn't play much at all... and really only goes out when needed. I like how Fleming has played lately but this is the playoffs and he isn't quite ready for the big time.

Power Play lines

PP 1

Rai - Scott - Boyer - Hickey - Acolatse

PP 2

Parker - Obrien - Cloud (Nielsen?) - Warg - Schappert

I'm not as sure whether Nielsen fits into the plans on the Power Play. Nielsen will be one of your first penalty killers if healthy so he may not be in regular rotation on the PP. Also depends on his health... but we're assuming he is good to go.

Penalty Killers - always depending on the guy or guys in the box obviously.

Scott - Nielsen - Hickey - Haber

Richard - Boyer - Warg - Schappert

Comments:

Seattle is really top heavy and I think Sumner would do well to cut the rotation down in the playoffs. Unlike past years where the team was easily able to rotate 3 and sometimes 4 lines... I think this team is really only 2.5 lines deep. I know some players are simply not going to be happy about that, but there is a reason why this team has so many glaring minus ratings. To beat Spokane... I think the top 2 lines need to shine and the 3rd lines need to hold down the fort when they are in there for this team to have a chance.

There are a handful of line situations that I tinkered with... so let me know what you guys think... I have a feeling there will be plenty of different opinions on this.

3.16.2009

Seattle vs. Spokane

Kelowna just finished beating Spokane 1-0 and the result is that Kelowna has clinched the #3 seed and Spokane has finished in the #4 spot in the Western Conference and will open at home against the Tbirds on Friday (or Saturday... standby).

Now that I know the opponent for sure... I will start finishing up my series preview. I am also going to have an article/post this week on what I think the lines and rotation should look like for the playoffs.

Also of note... I do know that Tanner Muth is headed down from Calgary to join the team for the first round as well.

Playoff Tickets

Come on Tbird fans... let's get this thing going.

Right now there are way too many tickets left for the playoff games on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. It is time to get your friends together and take them to the game! We can't have the building half empty for the first ever playoff games at the ShoWare Center.

The front office has some playoff deals going and they have asked me to throw it out to my readers.

Two new deals are currently being run...

First Deal... Buy 10, get 12 for $200

Buy 10 tickets and receive 2 extra tickets for free for $200. This represents a $4 discount, there are no service fees and your group will be recognized on the video board.

Second Deal... Buy 10 tickets and split them between both games.

Buy 10 tickets and receive a $4 discount and a waive of the service fees. You can split the 10 tickets between the two games anyway you want. You want 8 for Game 1 and 2 for Game 2? Done... 5 and 5... done and done... etc.

Please contact Sean Runnels at seanr@seattlethunderbirds.com or call him at 253-239-7825.

Come on Tbird fans... we HAVE to get people into the building. Make it happen....

Double Digits...

A few random trivia answers...

Last time the Tbirds scored 10 goals in a game?

February 28, 2003

Seattle scored 10 goals on their way to a 10-6 victory over the Tri-City Americans. Tomas Mojzis and Greg Black each had 3 goals and an assist in the victory. 12 Tbirds recorded points in the win.

Last time the Tbirds won by 10 or more goals?

Just weeks earlier on February 15, 2003

Seattle scored 11 times in an 11-1 romp of the Lethbridge Hurricanes. Dustin Johner had 3 goals and an assist. Brooks Laich had a goal and 4 assists and Nate Thompson had 4 points as well. Aaron Gagnon and Tomas Mojzis also had 3 points a piece. The Tbirds totaled 31 player points and 14 players getting points. In what was a very eventful night at Key Arena the teams combined for 223 penalty minutes.

3.15.2009

Perfect 10

Tbirds hang a 10 spot on Everett tonight AND get the shutout for Kyle Jahraus in the process.

Couple comments...

Connor Sanvido, the Tbirds 1st Round bantam pick from last season is here with the team. Why in the world is he not playing tonight??? Would tonight not have been the perfect night for him to get some playing time and see what you have?

Also... Colin Jacobs' team lost in the Regional finals over the weekend and I am told he will be in Seattle by Tuesday to be with the team.

Also... obviously Jahraus was here and played tonight and good for him for playing well and picking up the shutout. Question obviously is... what took the team so long to get him here??

Post Season Awards

3 Stars of the game Award - Prab Rai
Humanitarian Award - Lindsay Nielsen
Scholarship Award - Erik Fleming
Top Scorer - Greg Scott
Most Improved - Jeremy Schappert
Top Defensemen - Thomas Hickey
Rookie of the Year - Calvin Pickard
Team MVP - Thomas Hickey

Schappert could be considered a slight surprise (but not a shock). I might have gone with Stefan Warg who also improved a ton over the course of the season.

The rest really isn't a shock... Thomas Hickey is the heart and soul of this team and deserves his awards and accolades.

The Tbirds first round opponent is still a mystery and I KNOW that Spokane could still theoretically catch Kelowna for the 3rd seed, but I just don't see that happening.... Expect to see the Tbirds in Spokane on Friday (or Saturday) to open the playoffs.

3.14.2009

Tbirds win in OT, clinch the 5 spot in the West

I'm not going to say that this was a good win by the Tbirds tonight... but it sure is a gutty win.

Down 2-0 less than 2 minutes into the game and coming on the heels of the 9-1 blowout last night, the Tbirds could have easily folded the tent up the rest of the game and none of us would have been surprised.

Much to my surprise... they dug down deep... scored the games next 3 goals and eventually won it in overtime.

With the win... Seattle has 73 points. Couple that with Kamloops losing tonight and the Blazers finish the season with 72 points.

In addition to that... Kelowna went a long way towards being the #3 seed by blowing out the Blazers 7-1 and they are a full 3 points ahead of the food poisoned Spokane Chiefs.

So we can't say for sure that Seattle is playing Spokane in the first round... but it is beginning to look like that will probably be the case.

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