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8.27.2013

Projecting the Roster - Tyler Edition

Watched the scrimmage yesterday and came away with a few thoughts and overall I was pretty pleased.

I personally think that the team isn't done making moves (Jon agrees) so I don't really think this is the "final" roster. I will however take a crack at what I think the roster will look like based on who was still around yesterday.

Forwards: 13

Lipsbergs
Barzal
Hickman
Elliot
Swenson
Delnov
Honey
Sheen
Eansor
Troock
Holub
Kolesar
Pederson

First off... Barzal is a lock to make the team and I think Kolesar is a lock as well based on his play last year and his status as a 1st round pick. I also think Pederson makes it simply because he has looked so solid and I know they are very high on him but I don't know that he is a lock. If the team has to pick between Kolesar and Pederson... I think unfortunately Pederson goes home. You may not like that but I think that's a little truth serum for you.  If two (possibly three) 16 year old forwards are going to make the team I think that pushes out any other 16's because you simply won't have enough playing time to get them their minimum games.

I think that means that Holub makes it over Folk and guys like Holowko, Neuls, Kreklewich and Weber all go home. I think Holowko has a very good chance to make the team as a 17 year old, I just think the numbers game catches up with him this year.

Defense: 9

Forsberg
Smith
Foulk
Hauf
Theodore
Wardley
Bear
Wolf
Douglas

This is where my numbers get a little bit fuzzy. I have the team probably carrying 9 defenders and I really think that's one too many. The question becomes whether the team feels strongly that Bear could be a solid option for your 6th defender and would that mean a trade of either Smith, Foulk or possibly Hauf. Or do you roll with what you have and possibly send away Wolf or Douglas? My hunch is that they are both sticking around for different reasons. Luke Osterman is the other big question here. The kid has really impressed in camp and has played quite well... but I think Bear probably is the 16 to stay and you simply can't get another 16 year old enough dressed games.

Goaltenders: 3 (technically)

Fordyce
Myles
Mumaugh (injured)

I saw enough from Fordyce that I think he starts the season as the starting goaltender but I think his hold on the job is tenuous as best. He struggled early in the scrimmage with rebound control and body control but was able to calm himself, refocus and played pretty solidly the rest of the way. To me... that's almost just as important as technical aspects. He didn't start well but he was able to recover and not let things snowball. Mumaugh is hurt, so I think you carry Myles as the backup for now and figure it out once Mumaugh recovers.

Flodell looked pretty sharp in net but I don't see the point in keeping him around as a 16 unless you are pretty darn sure that he is your backup and he's going to play. I'd rather have him go back to Regina and play another full year and be ready to compete for the starting job next year.

That's a full 25 players (technically 24 with Mumaugh injured) and I can't remember the last time Seattle carried that many players to start the season.  Translation = Expect a trade.  I think Seattle might still look for an upgrade in net and I'm still not convinced they are keeping Elliot around as a 20 year old.

So expect things to change. I don't think they will stay this way and of course I could be totally wrong... but this would be my best guess going into the Everett tournament this weekend.

5 comments :

Kodi said...

I think you need to carry an additional forward until Troock can prove that he is durable enough to last the whole season. I also don't like when they move a person on defence to a forward when they ar short on players. That being said I would add Carter Folk to your list

As for defence on my list I had the team only carrying 8 with Osterman making the team and Faulk and Wolf the odd men out but I pretty much see a bunch of our young D being used as trade bait. So I think they will all be involved in one way or another.

I will say this for trades though, I only want to see players move if it's for a 19 year old tender. If it's a 20 I would prefer a draft pick and save the players for bigger moves later.

jon said...

Tend to agree that an extra forward will be there but not sure if it's Folk. Kid is tough but for the most part has not looked good in camp. Clark has been really trying, showed some toughness and seems to be a little more versatile but I could be wrong.

Osterman would be nice but it's going to be really hard to get to 16yo d-men ice time this year unless you only suit 11 forwards. Bear has looked better then Wolf and Douglas in my eyes but I also think that those three all bring something different to the table.

I've mentioned to Tyler outside the blog that I think they trade at least one of the 18 yo defensemen and 19 yo forwards at some point this year. There are just too number heavy with them.

Marc S said...

If they trade a 19 yo forward would you expect them to get an 18 yo forward back since that is a big of a hole in their roster?

I think the 19 yo forwards will sort themselves out at the end of the year if they don't find a trading partner. Two of them are likely to not return next year since they are euros and that would knock you down to 5 19 yo skaters at the end of the year. If Troock has a good year he could sign with Dallas (if he hasn't already) and be in the AHL next year.

Jon said...

Marc S, a little later today, you will see my thoughts on exactly what you mentioned

Mr Tell13 said...

Interesting lineup.
On offense, I wonder if there is a way that they can keep Kolesar AND Folk. I know they have not had the best camp in the eyes of soem people, but I think the team would benefit from the size (and decent hands) of Kolesar and the thoughness of Folk.

On defense, I think Bear is a lock. I like what Wolf was showing in camp (his skating has improved a lot over the summer) and he seems more confident with the puck in the d-zone. Someone said that Douglas was an upgraded version of Green and I think it is true. But like Green, he has ups and down. For that I would place him a tiny notch under Wolf. (but they bring different things)

Goalie wise, I would wait a bit ....I think I need to see them against some copetition before I form an opinion.
But Flodell did have a good camp.

The pre-season games are going to be interesting, who are we going to see gone for pro camps?
Theodore
Delnov
I heard Hauf maybe going to camp somewhere
Elliot (per Jon)
Troock ?
anyone else?

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