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Hockey Challenge 2014

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Stats Stats

Those of you who have followed my semi-coherent ramblings over the past couple of years... know that I am a big statistical guy.

Over at the Massey Ratings they calculate power rankings and make predictions based on complex mathematical equations (which I won't bother explaining/boring with here).

Stats can often either confirm or deny what we are seeing with our naked eyes watching these teams play and while I'm not saying that all stats are 100% predictive they do have the advantage of being able to "watch" all teams play.

Ok... having said that... we thought the Tbirds looked bad to us in the first 5 games? So did Massey.

Overall the Tbirds are rated 20th out of 22 teams in the WHL ahead of only Regina and Lethbridge. It then uses the rankings to make predictions on games and it "predicts" that tomorrow night's game against the Americans should be Tri City 3.3 Seattle 0.5 with the Tbirds having a 7% chance of winning. Yikes...


Anonymous said...

1 goal game either way:)

Prediction: Birds 4 Tri 3

MarcS74 said...

0.5 goals, that could be an offensive explosion with how they have looked after the first two periods of the opener. They really need to shore up the D end of the game, too many odd man rushes, I don't know if the D is trying to jump into the play to much or if they just don't see the plays developing for their opponents.

Anonymous said...

Just stuff Tyler. I always enjoy your input .... If the T-birds can holfd the Americans to 3.3 goals that would be a great effort. However, I predict 5 - 3Americans. too mamy weapons, and too many mistakes by the T-birds. At least the T-birds will show a little offense, but a little too late.

Brian in Sherwood

Anonymous said...

P.S.... how do get 1 goal game either way if the system is projecting 3.3 to .5 anyway?

brian in Sherwood

MIKE said...

Who cares about the idiotic system. The system doesn't play the games.

Thunnex said...

True and I'm not saying that the system replaces the game in any way... but I do think it is a good way to evaluate how a team has played up to this point against the teams they have played... and how they compare to the other teams in the league.

Simply a tool... nothing more nothing less.

Anonymous said...

Spoke to some of the guys, a win tonight would be huge. They had a good week at practice and will show
a couple line changes to start.

Anonymous said...

sure you did

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