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I do it... so you don't have to....

So the question is... where is Seattle going to finish? and where could they finish? can they get to 4th? 5th? 6th? and where might they end up.

I went through and charted the home and away games remaining for Seattle, Everett, Spokane and Kamloops.

I then took the Massey Ratings for the teams and factored in their projected wins and losses based on their ratings against those opponents and then accounted for past results and how strong the home ice advantage is (has been).

As most of you know... I'm a pretty heavily stats oriented fan, so I tend to eat this stuff up. Please keep in mind that this is only my best guess and things could easily change in a hurry based on real results.

Seattle's remaining games - 18.5 wins, 10.5 losses (37 points), 21 home, 8 away
Spokane's remaining games - 16 wins, 15 losses (32 points), 14 home, 17 away
Everett's remaining games - 12.5 wins, 17.5 losses (25 points), 15 home, 15 away
Kamloops' remaining games - 10.5 wins, 15.5 losses (21 points), 12 home, 14 away

These results would slot Spokane 4th, Seattle 5th, Everett 6th and Kamloops 7th.

Before the questioning begins (which I welcome)... let's hit a few points here.

A Silvertips fan is going to have a problem with that total... so I have to promise that I did not take any bias into the projections for Everett and Kamloops. Everett has a fairly tough schedule left. They play 3 times in Portland, where the Winterhawks have not only been playing better lately but are actually 13th in the league in home ice advantage. So I have them for 2 wins and 2 losses against Portland in the their final 4 games. You could make that 2.5 or 3 wins and you'll see why later it wouldn't matter. Also... Everett plays 3 more times in Kent and the Tips have played horribly (historically) on the road against Seattle and lost their first game in the new building on the 3rd. They also play Tri-City 5 more times with 3 of those coming on the road where the Americans have the top home ice rating in the league and I have them getting 1.5 wins and 3.5 losses in those final 5 games with the Ams. The only really "easy" games the Tips have left is one home game against Portland, 2 games against Chilliwack, one home game against Lethbridge and maybe a home game against Kamloops. How do the Tips stack up against the Birds? Well they each play 3 more times at home against each other and with Everett trading away Kyle Beach I gave an ever so slight edge to Seattle at 3.5 to 2.5 (which is a .5 win swing over 3-3).

Also... Spokane might have a beef. Chiefs fans are going to say "Are you really telling me we go 16-15 the rest of the way?". Well, yes, sort of... First off... Spokane is 5-5 in their last 10 games so .500 hockey isn't something they haven't experienced and it has happened recently. Second, and more importantly, Spokane has 17 road games to only 14 home games left. They have 3 road games in Everett where the Tips are pretty tough so I gave them 2.5 wins in 4 games with Everett. They play the Americans 6 more times with 3 on the road at the Toyota Center, so I gave them 2 wins and 4 losses in 6 games with Tri-City... maybe that is slightly low but even a .5 adjustment isn't going to move things a ton. They also play Vancouver twice and I have them losing both, which isn't much of a stretch right now, though I did give Seattle a split with Vancouver in their 2 games and I did that for a reason which we will discuss later. They play Kelowna 3 times and considering Kelowna's upgrades I have everyone struggling a little bit with the Rockets the rest of the way. I'm willing to admit that Spokane seems capable of playing above my projection where I see Kamloops and Everett being fairly solid.

Kamloops just doesn't have enough games left and still has a Central Division road swing left on their schedule and plays Vancouver 4 times. All that together and it doesn't seem hard to imagine them getting about 10.5 wins and 15.5 losses, which leaves them in 7th.

and Seattle....

I made a few optimistic adjustments to the Tbirds projections. I have them splitting with Vancouver in two home games with the Giants. I guess I just sort of hope the Tbirds win one of those games when they have also been pretty solid at home this season and pretty tough at the ShoWare Center so far. I have them winning 4 out of 6 with Portland. I have them winning 3.5 out of 6 with Everett (as discussed above). I have a split with Tri-City in 4 games with 3 coming at home. I have them sweeping Kamloops, including a road win up there.... which is definitely a stretch right now. A win over PG, a win over Chilliwack and Lethbridge at home and I threw in a .5 win night against Medicine Hat and a split with Spokane in 4 games with 3 coming at home. So while I made a few optimistic judgements with Seattle, you could see where the Tbirds could gain a little ground in two games I gave to the Americans and Chiefs.

So here is the point.....

With these projections the totals are:

Spokane - 83 pts
Seattle - 77 pts
Everett - 70 pts
Kamloops - 66 pts

Keeping in mind that we are already perhaps a little low on Spokane and a little high on Seattle, the Tbirds still finish 6 points behind the Chiefs in the standings.

Seattle would need a 7 point swing from these projections in order to catch Spokane.

If Spokane holds their projection, Seattle would need to go 22-7 the rest of the way to pass them. If Oscar Moller comes to Seattle, would the Tbirds get the 3.5 win boost? Probably not, but it's possible. If Spokane actually played worse than projected... let's say at 14-17, Seattle would still need to go 20-9 the rest of the way to get it done.


I think Seattle finishes 5th and faces Spokane in the first round and I think right now they probably lose the series with Spokane having the home ice advantage. If Oscar Moller comes to Seattle, you could probably give Seattle a slight boost with Spokane still favored. Both teams are excellent on home ice an that would give Spokane the edge. It will be very difficult for Seattle to catch Spokane and if they out play their projection by a game or two it will be near impossible.

I think Everett could improve their projection, but in my opinion they have about the same chance of catching Seattle as Seattle has of catching Spokane. I think it is far more likely that Everett might find themselves in a dog fight with Kamloops for the 6th spot. I know this is going to come across like I'm being a homer... but I would challenge anyone to explain to me where Everett is going to pick up some tough games and where Seattle is going to falter more than expected.

Ok... fire away...


Anonymous said...

wow...that is great reading, fun to conjecture and try to digest...thank you for the time and is VERY much appreciated...not only on this post but on each and every post...a true fan you are and the others (fans) are lucky to have you

Anonymous said...

Well done! You may have slightly "rose colored glasses" but I like the analysis. I posted a West. Conf. prediction thread on the white board, but I just went with my gut. You make me want to go back and actually look at each teams remaining schedule. If you guys get Moller, you will be my dark horse team, but goaltending will be a question mark.

Thunnex said...

I actually did go through and simulate things game by game based on the Massey Ratings... I placed a large emphasis on home ice advantage which obviously factors the Tbirds quite a bit.... but it isn't really much of a stretch to assume that the home teams are going to win more often than not... so perhaps it is a bit rose colored and I admit to such, but I also don't think it is too far off.

Thunnex said...

should have said *favors the Tbirds quite a bit... sorry

Anonymous said...

Tyler, Great job man. Amazing job you're doing.

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