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2.26.2009

Projections revisited

Couple of months ago I broke down what I thought might happen the rest of the way. Let's go back and see how I'm doing. Here was the quote.

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With these projections the totals are:

Spokane - 83 pts
Seattle - 77 pts
Everett - 70 pts
Kamloops - 66 pts

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Currently Spokane sits at 83 points, so clearly I was low on them... but I also did that purposely for the illustration that it was going to be nearly impossible for Seattle to catch them. I should have included Kelowna, but Seattle didn't come close to catching them either.

Seattle stands at 62 points with 9 games to play. In order to get to 77 the Birds have to get 15 out of a possible 18 points. That seems out of reach but it may not be. With 8 home games and the way they are playing at the Sho I would expect the Tbirds to win 6 of those games straight up. If you win in Portland for their final road game that's 14 points. All you need to do is take a 7th game to OT and you have 15 of 18. My guess... they will finish at 75 points which is still pretty darn close.

Everett currently has 59 points and would need 11 in their last 9 games. With their play of late... that would seem to be a bit of a stretch. A look at the schedule and I think it is nearly impossible for them to get to 70 points. I can see them getting about 6 or maybe 7 which would put them at 65-66 points. Still... pretty close to the 70 I called for, not bad.

I had Kamloops for 66 points, finishing in 7th but they appear to have a leg up on Everett for 6th. They sit at 62 points with 8 games to play... only needing 4 points in 16 possible to make it to my projection. Loops can probably get 1 of 2 games in PG.... but then look at the rest of the schedule. Home Calgary, Home Portland, At Vancouver, Home Vancouver, Home Kelowna, At Kelowna. I don't believe Kamloops has beaten Kelowna all season. So suddenly... 4 points in their last 8 games doesn't seem like such a stretch. I'll say they finish with 72 points and finish 3 behind Seattle.

All in all... not bad. I missed pretty badly on Spokane... but again that was mostly to see how Seattle might catch them.

2 comments :

mr.B said...

Great Blog. I've enjoyed your insight throughout the season. Where does everyone typically go for a drink & socializin' before home games at the Sho?

Thunnex said...

Hey thanks.. I would say Poppa's Pub first and foremost but I know a lot of people also go to the Ram at Kent Station and I have gone to the Zephyr Bar and Grill a couple of times when the Ram was packed. The Tbirds also have some other bar sponsors but they are a little further away from the arena.

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