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Monday Morning thoughts...

In an effort to continue trying to be positive about this team... I will say that after an 0-2 start to the week, getting to 2-2 feels pretty darn good.

One thought on the comments. Look guys and gals... I really don't want to censor people. I love the fact that this blog has come from a day when I never got comments (and wondered if anyone was reading) to having multiple posts lately where we had over 20 comments on one post. I want everyone to feel like they can voice their opinion, I love when people disagree with me... but this isn't the forum board (nothing against it) and it just isn't going to be. If you are going to resort to childish retort... I'll just delete it. Find a way to intelligently articulate a point or go troll the message boards. My hope is that I don't really have to address this again or very often because quite frankly I know it isn't entertaining to read me whine and complain about comments.

I know there was some disagreement over whether Seattle "deserved" the 2 points on Saturday against Kelowna, but the bottom line is that they got the job done and picked up the extra point in the overtime period. The win in Everett was a big one for many reasons... the most immediate of which is that it pulls Seattle to within a point of the Silvertips in the standings. I still stand by my prediction that Seattle will wind up in front of Everett in the Western Conference but I'm not so sure anymore about Seattle catching and passing Kamloops... the head to head losses amounted to an 8 point swing where I was counting on Seattle splitting (which would have obviously been a 0 point swing/no swing). Tbirds have to play pretty lights out at home the rest of the way to catch Kamloops or hope Kamloops goes into a bit of a tailspin.

Revisiting the prediction?

Seattle has been a bit of a mixed bag (sounds like this season huh?). They are on pace with the 4-2 record I had them with against Everett as they are 2-1 since that time and they picked up a win over Tri-City, but they also would need to now win 2/3 over Spokane (2 are at home) and I had them winning both over Kamloops and they actually lost both which I talked about above... a huge 8 point swing. They picked up a .5 over expected by beating Kelowna, but lost that .5 point by losing to Medicine Hat. Seattle needs a win Friday over Lethbridge or they will risk falling further off the pace.

Spokane still hasn't lost... so catching them is totally out of the picture. They are 9-0 since I crunched the numbers and they would need to lose all 4 of their remaining match-ups with Tri-City (and that is the reason why Spokane has closed the gap so quickly with Tri), twice to Seattle, twice to Kelowna, once at Koots, and twice to Vancouver which doesn't seem like as much of a slam dunk with the way the Chiefs have been playing. Oh btw... the first of those Vancouver-Spokane games... this Friday in Spokane.

My prediction on Everett is actually looking pretty good. Despite getting only 6 points since my projections they really aren't too far off what I expected them to do. They are definitely off the projected pace with Spokane as I pegged them for 2-2 and they are already 0-2.

Kamloops has obviously given themselves the edge in the race for 5th as they picked up two wins over Seattle and a .5 point over expected against Medicine Hat.

Other notes for today....

- Benn Olson recently returned from injury and was sent down to the ECHL's Florida Everblades. As I understand it, Olson is being sent out to get some games under his belt with the Everblades having 7 games in a 10 day stretch. Olson returned this weekend and fought twice... locking up the second night with old friend Myles Stoesz, formerly of the Spokane Chiefs (also Chilliwack and Regina).

- Luca Sbisa has been returned to the Lethbridge Hurricanes after playing 39 games with the Philadelphia Flyers. I wouldn't bother mentioning this normally except for the fact that Seattle plays Lethbridge on Friday. That is a big boost to the Hurricanes right before heading out on their US Division tour (except Spokane).

- Oscar Moller has not yet returned to action for the Los Angeles Kings. I actually think this might slightly increase the chance of him coming to Seattle. He is travelling with the Kings on their 5 game road trip, which would suggest that he is to return very soon. He also participated with full contact in the Kings practice today. I will still state that we will probably figure out real quick whether there is a chance of him coming back based on his minute numbers.

- I've been told that the Tbirds are actively running radio ads for their ticket deal for Friday.


Anonymous said...

one thing you didnt mention is spokanes injury of jared cowan. the gm said that they expected him out for a lengthy time. loosing him is huge. he is there top defender, probably top 5 in the whole whl. i think this is really going to end up hurting spokane. i know they have top of the line scoring (which tbirds could really use) but as the tbirds have shown lately, defense wins games. i was at the game in everett, and really besides the parker goal, our offense looked bad again. ive been impressed with our defense, especially after the first period of the med hat game. didnt we only give up 6 shots in the last two periods? i wasnt at the kelowna game (first home game ive missed all season) but it seemed to me that the defense played well. i think with 14 home games left, with 3 portland games, 2 everett games, and one chiliwack game and one pg game, that should be atleast 5 wins. atleast. thats 10 points. we have played well against tri at home, and with 2 games againt them, we should at least get 2 points out of those games. that leaves the lethbridge, 2 van, and 2 spoke games. i would be happy with 5 points out of those games.

now if moeller comes to seattle, i think he atleast helps you get 3 to 4 more points. i think it is highly possible we catch kamloops. which would be amazing for us, and could end up helping us in the playoffs. as it stands right now, we would be playing tri cities. which i think would be a better match up than spoke. i think its a given we will pass everett unless something drastic happens. but i think our goal is to pass kamloops so we see kelowna in the playoffs. i honestly think we match up better against them. what do you think tyler?


Anonymous said...
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Thunnex said...
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Thunnex said...

The loss of Cowan is significant but I don't think it hurts Spokane nearly as much as say a Hickey getting hurt for Seattle.

I'm not saying Seattle can't catch Kamloops... I'm just saying if you look at the games remaining you realize that those two losses to the Blazers were huge and it wouldn't surprise me if the Tbirds finished 1-8 points behind Kamloops and those two games were the difference.

stbird said...

All I have to say is.......


(and, i think we do have a shot at 5th, keep hitting everyone)

Anonymous said...

i agree, those loses were huge. but if you look at the rest of kamloops schedule. they have a tough road ahead. they were destroyed by kelowna tonight. and they play them 3 more times. they also play calgary twice, and 10 tough away games. i think they have it worse off than us. hopefully those 2 loses dont come back to haunt us, but personally, i dont think it will. we will catch them.


Thunnex said...

They certainly CAN catch Kamloops, and you're right, Loops has plenty of tough games left.... but so do the TBirds. I could see the Tbirds getting only a point or two out of this tough weekend and it would not surprise me.

Tbirds have to pull off some upsets in order to get there... winning at home over Lethbridge AND Vancouver would be a huge boost.

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